SEPTEMBER is here, which means summer is drawing to a close.
The precise date that autumn starts depends on if you use the meteorological or astrological definition of the seasons – but for most people, the weather is a pretty good indicator.
Is another heatwave on the way?
There have been five “official” heatwaves over the past few months, according to the temperature thresholds established by the Met Office.
But over the past few days wet and windy weather has been hitting parts of the North West and Scotland, and flood alerts are in place in England.
While the Met Office doesn’t predict a drastic drop-off in temperatures at this point, the forecaster certainly suggests another heatwave looks unlikely.
Ahead of the start of September, the Met Office said temperatures were “expected to settle back towards seasonal norms. The exceptional heat of summer appears to be ending, with conditions becoming more typical of early autumn.”
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It added that while “there may still be occasional warmer days in southern areas when drier weather develops… there are currently no strong signals suggesting a return to prolonged hot weather.”
As we move into meteorological autumn – which begins on September 1 – the weather outlook is shifting.
“The main driver behind this change is the return of a stronger Atlantic influence,” the Met Office says.
This week, an increasingly active jet stream will cause increased low pressure from thew Atlantic, with many areas seeing rain.
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The Met Office explains: “Central parts of the country and some areas of higher ground are likely to record the largest rainfall totals, while southern and southeastern England may experience longer dry intervals.”
It adds that temperatures will be around the seasonal average for early September, but are forecast to rise through the first week of the month.
A warm south-westerly breeze will bring temperatures of 23C to 24C to southern areas on Wednesday, and clearer conditions on Thursday mean the south-east of England could see 26C – the rest of the country will be in the high teens and low 20s.
Looking further ahead, the Met Office predicts an “unsettled period” where many places will see “showers or longer spells of rain at times” between September 6 and September 15.
This rain is again expected to be most frequent in the North and West, bringing “the potential for some strong and gusty winds, particularly in the northwest.”
If you live in the south or east, you are more likely to have drier conditions, and the Met Office says that during this period “brief warm or very warm spells are possible, especially in the south.”
From mid-September onwards, confidence in the forecast is “very low,” but a continuation of this mixed, changeable pattern is currently expected.
What is a heatwave?
A single hot afternoon does not automatically mean the UK is in a heatwave.
The Met Office defines an official heatwave as a period when a location records at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding a specific temperature threshold.
Because the climate varies across the UK, these thresholds are broken down by region and county:
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- 25C: Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, northern England, and parts of the South West.
- 26C to 27C: Central, eastern, and southern counties.
- 28C: Greater London and surrounding Home Counties.
If temperatures reach or exceed these daily limits for three full days in a row, an official heatwave is declared for that area.