Voting in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt is under way in a closely watched election that could see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since World War II.
Under its 35-year-old lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, the party has been polling ahead for months, and there is a genuine chance the AfD could take an absolute majority this evening, particularly if several smaller parties fail to clear Germany’s 5% threshold to enter parliament.
The vote is seen as a barometer for the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has attempted to chip away at the AfD’s popularity by taking a tougher line on migration and security.
About 1.7 million voters have until 6pm (5pm Irish time) to cast their ballot before polls close, with initial results expected shortly after.
Recent surveys place the AfD at just over 40%, followed by Mr Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23%.
An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass mainstream parties’ efforts to keep the party blocked out of power by refusing to work with it under a longstanding “firewall” policy.
Achieving an absolute majority is a high bar to clear in Germany’s proportional electoral system, which was designed in part to encourage coalition governments and make it difficult for one party to rule alone.
If the AfD falls short of an outright majority, a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is the most likely outcome, though the exact shape of any coalition would depend on which parties enter.
Weeks of coalition talks could follow today’s vote.
AfD ‘can no longer be stopped’
For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election is a stepping stone towards its larger ambitions of securing national power in the next federal election scheduled for 2029.
“No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history,” said Mr Siegmund at a final rally yesterday evening.
“Because what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt – that is currently sweeping across all of Germany – can no longer be stopped,” he told the crowd in the state capital, Magdeburg.
Should it win, the AfD plans to shift schools and cultural institutions towards more traditional values, marginalise immigrants and deeply reform the public broadcasting system.
However, without an absolute majority, the AfD, which has been classified as “far-right extremist” by the state security service, would struggle to enter government due to the firewall.
Mr Siegmund, who arrived to cast his vote in his hometown of Tangermuende on a blue Simson moped, greeted by throngs of excited fans, has ruled out entering a coalition with other parties.
He argues that it is impossible for the AfD to govern with the mainstream politicians who have been driving Germany into the ground over the past three decades and instead is aiming to win 45% or more of the vote.
Falling short of that opens the prospect of complex coalition negotiations, dependent on which parties can hit the 5% hurdle.
Polls show one of the CDU’s current coalition partners, the Free Democratic Party, falling short, while the other, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), is under 10%.
The small far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), the only party that has not ruled out a coalition with the AfD, is also likely to miss out.
For Schulze, who is favoured in polls as voters’ top choice for leader, combining with the SPD and Greens might not be enough for a majority, but the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the far-left Left Party that could help it reach that threshold.
One option could be a minority government led by Mr Schulze that would depend on passive tolerance from the Left – a model used in the neighbouring eastern German state of Thuringia.