Andy Burnham’s ‘Holborn test’: Why PM needs Labour by-election win to show he is not anti-LondonCommentary: If Labour wins, Mr Burnham will give his party back hope but if it loses he may need to reflect on growing ‘anti-London’ claims against him
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Nicholas Cecil, Chief Reporter @nicholascecil2 minutes ago
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Andy Burnham needs a Labour victory in the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election if he wants to dispel the notion the new Prime Minister is anti-London.
Why? Let’s look at benefits. The claimant count rate in Mr Burnham’s Makerfield constituency was 3% in July.
The rate of people on benefits for out-of-work jobseekers was 5.1% in Holborn and St Pancras, according to the House of Commons Library.
Statistics need to be treated with caution.
But the figures may surprise given the narrative in some quarters that London’s streets are paved in gold, or something similar.
The truth is that London is a divided city, some would say grotesquely divided, with vast areas of wealth cheek-by-jowl with rundown estates.
The fact that Kensington and Chelsea pays more income tax than the whole of Northern Ireland in some years tells its own story.
But there are also many deprived communities in the capital, with hundreds of thousands of people struggling as they are across the country in the relentless cost-of-living crisis.
In Tottenham, the claimant count rate was 9%, Brent East 8.8%, Edmonton and Winchmore Hill 8.2%, Hackney North and Stoke Newington 7.4%, and Lewisham East 7.3%.
It was 14.7% in Birmingham Perry Barr.
Andy Burnham after being declared the winner of the Makerfield by-electionPA Wire
On his victory at the Makerfield by-election in June, Andy Burnham proclaimed that he would be driven by the “Makerfield test”.
He stressed: “A Makerfield test at the heart of British politics will make sure that the places Westminster has neglected will now get fairness.”
Few would dispute his motives or passion.
But now that he is Prime Minister he needs to govern for Makerfield but also, to use his own phrase, for “every postcode” in Britain.
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That is not to dispute that the UK is an over-centralised country and that the regions could benefit from more power to make better use of increased investment.
However, already a feeling is starting to take hold among some voters in the capital that Mr Burnham is anti-London, as he takes the axe to thousands, if not tens of thousands of Whitehall jobs.
Steve Reed, the MP for Streatham and Croydon North sacked by Mr Burnham as Communities Secretary, has spoken out about this after a by-election this summer in his constituency.
“Some voters who ordinarily would support Labour were worried that the way we’re talking about devolution meant that we were anti-London, and we absolutely are not here,” he explained.
Former Communities Secretary Steve Reed warned that some voters in the capital were worried that the Government is anti-LondonPA Wire
Former Lambeth Council leader Mr Reed added: “People have misunderstood Manchesterism in London.
“They fear Manchester will be prioritised over London, and it doesn’t mean that and we have to make sure that the funding, when it’s allocated nationally, is done in a fair way.”
There appears to be a smack of cakeism in Mr Reed’s comments.
Politics is normally about choices, often hard choices.
More money for the regions is likely to mean less for London.
You can’t have your cake and eat it, unless you boost economic growth.
Zack Polanski campaigning in Holborn and St PancrasAFP/Getty
Mr Reed did not appear to be seeking to be disloyal.
But his words may be a canary in the coalmine for the Government about the dangers of being seen as anti-London, with the potential for backbench disquiet.
Speaking to The Standard recently, former Greater Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham denied he was anti-London and stressed he wanted to unleash the city to go “faster and further”.
But he will be judged by London voters on his actions not his rhetoric.
In north London, the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is high stakes as it involves Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging in what has been a safe Labour seat for decades.
Mr Burnham made a lightning visit to the constituency on Thursday and is expected to campaign in the by-election.
Labour’s candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, Sagal Abdi-Wali, speaks to supporters during her campaign launchGetty
The poll on October 8 is a clear contest, at a national level, between Mr Burnham and Mr Polanski for the Left-leaning vote in London, where the Greens scored spectacular successes at the May local elections.
If the Greens win, it will be a historic victory.
But if they lose, it will damage Mr Polanski.
If Labour wins, Mr Burnham will give Labour back hope after the Starmer days.
But if the party loses, the PM may need to reflect on those growing anti-London accusations.
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Andy BurnhamHolborn and St PancrasLabourGreen Partyby-electionTottenhamHackneyLewisham