Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín, buoyed by a recent political poll, was envisaging great gains by his party on both sides of the Border at his party’s think-in in Derry on Saturday. But he will know that, like the stock exchange, polls and political popularity can go down as well as up.
Still, sufficient for the day is the pleasure thereof and Tóibín wasn’t going to miss an opportunity to major on how an Ireland Thinks poll for the Sunday Independent had Aontú at 8 per cent, the same as the combined support for Labour, the Greens and People Before Profit.
Donald Trump for once provided extra cheer by speculating on a united Ireland, which like Tóibín and all Aontú members the US president would “love to see”. Tóibín urged the Government to exploit this remark to press for more clarity from the British government on the exact criteria for a Border poll.
It got even better for Aontú with the presence of Causeway Coast and Glens Borough councillor Margaret Anne McKillop at the think-in at the Maldron Hotel within the historic walls of Derry city centre. She quit the SDLP over the position of some of its senior members on abortion and is now the party’s sole councillor in the North.
Abortion was the conscience issue which led to Tóibín abandoning Sinn Féin and forming Aontú in 2019. Abortion is still a core issue for the party as exemplified by McKillop signing up, but as also illustrated at the think-in, it is now more of a background concern.
Abortion did not feature on the clár. Instead the focus was on elections, immigration, the cost of living, the budget, neutrality, crime and antisocial behaviour, and every now and then sticking it into Sinn Féin, who Tóibín accused of not heeding its grassroots.
It’s a long way to the next general election in the South, possibly in 2028 or 2029, but Tóibín is correct. If Aontú can hold or build on the current momentum it will have chances of increasing its current tally of two Dáil seats and one member, Sarah O’Reilly, in the Seanad.
People who get up early were left disappointed by Varadkar. Harris is ready to try again
His ambition is to win up to 12 seats, which seems a long shot, but based on that momentum and how the party fared in the 2024 general election, it has real chances in Meath East, Cavan-Monaghan, Limerick City, Wexford and Dublin West – in addition to the party’s current seats, Tóibín’s in Meath West and Paul Lawless’s in Mayo. Were it in a position to hold the balance of power, Tóibín would not enter a coalition with Fine Gael but did not rule out hooking up with Fianna Fáil, particularly if it had a new leader who was greener than Micheál Martin.
The most pressing matters for Aontú, however, are next May’s Northern Assembly and local elections. The party plans to stand 10 Assembly candidates and 15 council candidates. Whatever about the locals, Aontú will be harder-pressed to win a seat to Stormont, with deputy leader Gemma Brolly, sister of Joe, perhaps the best bet in East Derry.