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Nearly one in two Canadians would vote for Mark Carney’s Liberals if an election were held today, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll.
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The Liberals continue to lead nationally with 49 per cent support among decided voters and up three points since August. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are sitting at 33 per cent (down one point).
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“These results confirm once again that when Canada-U.S. relations take a downturn and/or President Trump starts attacking Canada, that’s good news for the Liberal Party, and it seems, bad news for Conservatives,” says Andrew Enns, executive vice-president, Central Canada for Leger.
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The poll results show the Conservatives are followed by the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent (up one), the NDP at 6 per cent (down two), the Greens at 3 per cent (down one), and other parties at 2 per cent (unchanged).
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Support for the Liberals is particularly strong in British Columbia (59 per cent), Ontario (53 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (60 per cent).
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Conservatives have their strongest support in Alberta (64 per cent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (47 per cent), as well as rural Canada (43 per cent).
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Canadians continue to express positive support for the federal government, with 57 per cent satisfied and 36 per cent dissatisfied with its current performance. Satisfaction is highest in Quebec (65 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (64 per cent). It is lower in Alberta (37 per cent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (46 per cent) and among those aged 35 to 54 (47 per cent).
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Support for Prime Minister Carney’s performance is also positive, with an approval rating of 58 per cent, while 34 per cent disapprove. His approval is highest in Quebec (68 per cent) and among Canadians aged 55 and over (67 per cent). It is lower in Alberta (38 per cent) and among those aged 35 to 54 (51 per cent).
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“Younger adults are most anxious about their economic futures, so noise about a trade war and the PM warning to ‘expect difficult times ahead’ likely doesn’t sit particularly well with this generation,” says Enns. “They are already feeling nervous about the breakneck pace that AI integration is on and the implications that has for future jobs and careers.”
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Opinion of the federal government and Carney continues to be strongly associated with federal voting intentions. Satisfaction with the government reaches 91 per cent among Liberal voters, compared with just 21 per cent among Conservative voters. Approval of Prime Minister Carney’s performance stands at 92 per cent among Liberal voters and 23 per cent among Conservative voters.
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Given the Liberal wins in three recent byelections in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. and the general pro-Canada sentiment, the survey results are no great surprise, says Enns.
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“The Liberals have increased their standing at the expense of Conservatives, NDP and Green. Support for the Liberals is particularly high in Quebec, which is interesting given the provincial Liberal party is struggling to make up ground in that province’s provincial election. It’s also high in B.C. and among voters age 55 and older.”