Londoners are far less likely to be the victims of crime than Britons generally believe, with half the population wrongly estimating the capital is the worst region for violent crime, according to a new study.

People also vastly overestimated the Muslim demographic of the city, with the public’s average guess that 35 per cent of Londoners are Muslim more than double the reality of 15 per cent.

The research from the Policy Institute at King’s College London examines the public’s beliefs about the city as part of its Mistaken Britain series, and is based on surveys of 2,164 and 3,969 adults. Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said the city had become a “lightning rod” in debates about crime, immigration and the direction of the country – but that “London has fallen” or “London in decline” narratives are often at odds with the realities of life in the capital.

“London in decline” narratives refer to the idea that the capital is crime-ridden and dangerous, which have been pushed by figures on the far-right such as Tommy Robinson as well as the likes of Elon Musk and US president Donald Trump, who previously claimed the capital is so dangerous that “people are being stabbed in the ass”. But Prof Duffy said these notions are “far too negative about the realities in London”.

People vastly overestimated crime rates, guessing on average that 30 per cent of Londoners have personally experienced a crime in the year between October 2024 and September 2025 – more than double the true figure of 12.2 per cent. The city also has the lowest rates of violent crime in England and Wales, but half of respondents believed it had the highest.

However, not all crime rates have fallen, and where they had increased, the public mostly guessed this accurately. Researchers found 79 per cent correctly guessed shoplifting has increased in London, and 71 per cent said the same about thefts from the person – both of which have more than doubled in this time. Sexual offences and violence against the person have also increased, and 58 per cent of the public correctly guessed this.

The study revealed misperceptions about the capital divide sharply along party lines. Reform UK supporters were found to be have the most inaccurate perceptions about crime and on London’s Muslim population, which they guess makes up as much as half the capital. Green and Labour supporters, meanwhile, overestimated how many white British people live in London.

It comes after research conducted by the Greater London Authority (GLA) found that “London in decline” narratives had increased by around 150-200 per cent, while migration-related posts referencing London had increased by over 350 per cent.

Speaking to The Independent about the recent increase, Callum Hood of the Centre for Countering Digital Hate said: “You have a coalition of far-right figures from around the world who have been quite intent on turning London into an image of multiculturalism gone awry.

“This has been particularly since Sadiq Khan has become mayor of London, this collision of phobic tropes, some of which are applied to Mr Khan, and show London as this image of lawlessness and a lack of respect towards the city’s history and values.”

Earlier this year, Sadiq Khan announced £7m on a campaign to tackle the “relentless and unprecedented attack of lies and hatred” on social media.

Mr Hood said far-right figures such as Tommy Robinson regularly use AI images to further the “London in decline” narrative.

“It’s a huge advantage as they don’t need to capture a clip or image that represents their world view,” he said. “They can type in a multicultural nightmare they want to impress on people’s minds and they get that image.“

He added: “The academic research on this is interesting, people think its real and has a big impression on them and their beliefs.”