Finally, settling on a starting quarterback days before the NFL regular-season begins is not a good thing. It’s not tactical craftiness to deny the opposition time to prepare, nor is it typically a choice between two good options.
It is a poorly veiled cry for help.
Meet the Atlanta Falcons.
FALCONS NAME SIXTH DIFFERENT WEEK 1 STARTING QUARTERBACK IN SIX YEARS
On Monday, the first day of their week’s preparation for a Sunday season-opener at the Pittsburgh Steelers, they announced Tua Tagovailoa as their starter. But beyond that opener?
“I don’t think it’s fair to really go past this week on anything related to our football team,” head coach Kevin Stefanski said.
Left unsaid is Michael Penix Jr. is advancing to a place where he can play in the regular season. So his starter status is looming.
Also unsaid: The Falcons are in some trouble.
The fact is, great teams typically get great quarterback play. It doesn’t mean they have great quarterbacks. It means the ones they have play great.
Jalen Hurts is not a great quarterback. But he played great in helping the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen is a great quarterback. But he hasn’t played well enough, especially not in the playoffs, to get the Bills to a Super Bowl.
Based on that, we celebrate the Wednesday night kickoff of the 2026 NFL season with a ranking of what the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks are likely to do in the next five months.
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This is a predictive ranking of which QBs are about to ball and dominate. And which are about to curl up in a ball and disappoint:
32. Jacoby Brissett: He’s a fine backup quarterback, but as a starter, he’s a fine backup quarterback.
31. Deshaun Watson: Unless he has a time machine that teleports him back to 2020, this isn’t going to go well.
30. Tua Tagovailoa: Might not make it to Week 2 as the starter.
29. Cam Ward: He’s growing as a QB, but he’s far from full-grown.
28. Malik Willis: The 2026 Dolphins have rejected the idea of surrounding the QB with a good supporting cast and Willis will pay a price for it.
27. Geno Smith: It’ll be better than the first NYJ stint (doesn’t say much), but not good enough to lift his team above third place in the AFC East.
26. Kirk Cousins: This will work great if Brock Bowers catches 300 passes and Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. combine for 2,500 rushing yards.
25. Tyler Shough: He’s about to turn 27, so the kid gloves developmental period ends or else his replacement comes next season.
24. Jaxson Dart: Over-under on season trips to the blue tent is 4.
23. Bryce Young: Promises more improvement, which means a one-time draft bust might be really good in 2026.
22. Daniel Jones: Good in spurts but never consistently great.
21. Jalen Hurts: Great in spurts, but an excellent team needs him to be more consistently good.
20. C.J. Stroud: The defense is the NFL’s best so just don’t mess things up.
19. Trevor Lawrence: Last season was excellent but was it his ceiling?
18. Aaron Rodgers: He needs to make his final NFL season entertaining based on how he plays rather than things he says.
17. Jayden Daniels: The failure to add enough bulk and offensive line injuries is a bad combination for someone wanting to stay healthy.
16. Baker Mayfield: He was supposed to be motivated by his search for a new contract but now must find something else to play angry about.
15. Justin Herbert: He has the arm, the work ethic, the coaching, but has not proven he’s got the it-factor in the biggest moments.
14. Jordan Love: Production has declined each of the past two years even as he’s been more careful with the ball.
13. Brock Purdy: We saw his ceiling in 2023 and the competition in the NFC West will make it very hard for him to reach that level again this season.
12. Sam Darnold: A good quarterback on an excellent team but it is a huge step to super-stardom.
11. Caleb Williams: If Luther Burden III is healthy and very good, Williams will be great. Otherwise, Williams will be merely good.
10. Bo Nix: Breakout season coming.
9. Kyler Murray: Career season coming.
8. Jared Goff: Underrated by many outside of Detroit, but this guy is consistently outstanding and that isn’t likely to change.
7. Drake Maye: Last year was not a mirage. Next stop is super stardom.
6. Lamar Jackson: He can still carry his team, but the Ravens have failed to make the burden lighter so, more of the same.
5. Patrick Mahomes: This rating probably means I must move to Kansas. He remains arguably the NFL’s most clutch late-game QB, but the magic of 2020-2022 has faded.
4. Dak Prescott: The only thing stopping him and his offense this year is injuries – or a Jerry Jones impromptu press conference during a drive.
3. Matthew Stafford: Nobody played the position better last season, but it’s hard to predict he’ll do it again at age 38.
2. Josh Allen: Last season was a bitterly disappointing regression, so a recovery this season is the expectation.
1. Joe Burrow: If he and his offensive teammates stay healthy, they have the best offense and best QB play in the NFL.