The irrepressible optimism of politicians generally is nowhere more evident than among Fianna Fáilers at a think-in.
And so, the mood was sunny at the Tullamore Court Hotel as TDs, Senators and MEPs gathered for the annual beano in advance of the new Dáil term next week.
They are leading the Government. The party has been celebrating its 100th anniversary. The money is there to throw at every problem. Sinn Féin is stuck in Opposition, and although Fianna Fáil is sharing power on a nearly-equal basis with their old frenemies in Fine Gael, they believe their edge in Dáil seats makes them the top dogs. And they’re away for the night with a strong chance of a few pints. These are all things that make Fianna Fáilers smile.
In addition to all that, the party seems to have reached an agreeable, if temporary, conclusion to the perennial question about Micheál Martin’s leadership. It is this: “We’ll think about all that next year.”
The Taoiseach, his Ministers and senior officials throughout every department have Council of the European Union presidency business to be getting on with. Trying to assassinate the dear leader while he is engaged with the future of Europe would not be a good look for a party which likes to think of itself as the most strongly pro-EU party in the Republic.
Also, it is beginning to dawn on people that they haven’t yet evinced a public-facing reason to get rid of Martin after more than 15 years as leader. “We don’t like him and he has been there for ages” does not constitute one.
Nonetheless, the expectation that he will not fight the next general election and will depart next year is general throughout the parliamentary party. But so is the conviction that all that can wait for a few months.
The absence of leadership manoeuvring meant the focus on policymaking in Tullamore was strong, which Martin loves, of course.
But the need to focus on policy reveals just how many fronts the Government is struggling to deliver on: housing, childcare, the cost of living, to name but a few.
On the last two of these, there were clunky hints that Budget 2027 will mark significant resources allocated to them, with Minister for Children Norma Foley speaking about a “breakthrough budget” for childcare costs.
On housing, the defining challenge for the Government, there is hope that progress is being made, but not yet irrefutable evidence of a step change in supply and a manifest difference on the ground.
But as Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers was keen to make clear, the budget will not be as generous as many would like. There are already reports of tensions between Chambers and Ministers looking for bigger increases in their spending allocation than he is inclined to give. If this is making him unpopular, that is an unavoidable consequence of doing his job.
In a pointed intervention, Chambers also warned people that the personal income tax cuts that have been touted so enthusiastically by his budget-making colleague and Minister for Finance Simon Harris would only amount to a few hundred euros for people. What was that about?
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Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan continued to highlight his efforts to tighten immigration policy, with promised changes to the rules on citizenship and a requirement that applicants should be required to undergo a test to ensure they can speak English (or Irish, but how likely is that?) at a reasonable level of proficiency. The Government has previously said it wants to reduce immigration. These moves are more about being seen to cut immigration levels.
Overall, Fianna Fáil is in a better place now than it has been at any of its recent think-ins. But it is facing some big and politically tricky decisions. Some of those will come in the next few weeks, when choices will have to be made between desirable outcomes that are not all possible.
Others will come next year, when the leadership question will inevitably return.