The Iowa State Fair was in full swing on the mid-August afternoon when secretary of war Pete Hegseth made a live appearance at JR’s SouthPork Ranch to campaign for Republican congressman Zach Nunn. Whether the boost was a help or hindrance to the candidate – or JR himself – depends on perspective.
Hegseth’s appearance at the restaurant came shortly after the precarious memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States had elapsed and coincided with a partisan controversy over the record days at sea endured by sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln. Hegseth was forced to deny reports of plummeting morale and supply shortages as Democrats demanded answers.
Nunn, seeking his third term in congress and facing a ‘toss-up’ electoral battle against Sarah Trone Garriot, had, until that moment, worked a nuanced campaign that concentrated on his record for the Hawkeye state. Trump tariffs had hurt Iowa farmers. Two of the six servicemen killed in the first wave of attacks in the Iran war were from Iowa. Nonetheless, Hegseth, wearing denims and an open-neck shirt, was there to announce to Iowans that their man was firmly in his camp.
“President Trump needs the type of leaders who understand why a $1.5 trillion budget, a one-time generational investment, is what is necessary to ensure that my kids and your kids, that your grandkids and my grandkids live in a free country, defended by the most powerful military in the world,” he said.
The appearance made headlines because within his half-hour stump speech, the war secretary resumed his attacks on DEI within the department, drawing lukewarm applause when he told the crowd that “at the department of war, we do training, not trannies. It is night and day difference. Colour blind, gender neutral, merit based. That’s it.”
But the moment also amplified the rumours and reports that Hegseth, whose cabinet career has been defined by indefatigable bombast and a rolling series of controversies, is thinking about throwing his hat into the Republican presidential candidacy circuit for 2028.
On the surface, it seems like a preposterous idea. Hegseth has one of the lowest approval ratings, at -22 points, in the history of the defence secretarial posting. By comparison, Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of defence heading into the 2006 midterms and two years into the Bush administration’s ruinous war on terror, held an approval rating of -7 points.
Although the USS Abraham Lincoln controversy has abated – the ship has departed Thailand after it docked there for five days, giving crew leave – Hegseth has moved on to new crises. The resignation, on August 31st, of Dan Driscoll, the US army secretary, created a renewed barrage of critical commentary on Hegseth’s stewardship of the Pentagon. Republican senator Thom Tillis took to X to praise Driscoll as “the right man at the right moment to lead our soldiers and army civilians” before calling on Trump to fire Hegseth.
“I have never witnessed more inept management of the brave men and women who serve our country. He is intimated by competence and retreats to ginning up culture wars instead of soberly attending to the vital work of our national defence and the health and well-being of our fighting force. I urge the president to find a new leader at the Pentagon who will retain and empower our military talent rather than diminish it.”
It wasn’t the first time that Tillis, who decided not to seek re-election for his North Carolina senate seat, has castigated Hegseth. Ironically, it was Tillis’s vote, in January 2025, that clinched Hegseth’s confirmation, leaving it at 50-50: JD Vance’s deciding vote saw the former Fox News host edge into the cabinet by the narrowest of margins.
Other Republicans, such as Nebraska’s Don Bacon, have also voiced unhappiness as Hegseth continued on a purge of experienced military and naval generals. In April, Hegseth asked gen Randy George, the army chief of staff, to retire, without explanation. George was the most senior of about 20 generals, admirals and senior civilian personnel who have departed.
Last week, Sean Parnell, the chief Pentagon spokesperson, dismissed as “fake news” a Washington Post report, citing a leaked classified document, that senior military officials had warned Hegseth that military resources would be stretched by a prolonged conflict. This weekend, Louisiana senator John Kennedy conspicuously declined to offer his confidence in Hegseth in an appearance on Meet The Press.
“Well, it’s not my place to have confidence in him,” Kennedy said.
“He’s consolidating power. That’s clear. He seems to be firing some pretty good people. Whether they deserve it or not, I don’t know. I voted for him. I’d probably vote for him again until evidence is shown to me that he shouldn’t have fired these guys. But I’m not worried about the personalities. What I’m worried about two things: we need more bullets. Not just for Iran but for the world. And two, we need to be partnering up with Ukraine to develop a new way to fight wars, and that includes drones.”
President Trump, however, does worry about the personalities – or at least cares about how they appear on his television screen when he surfs the remote in the White House at night time. That has been Hegseth’s saving grace. The unfeasible rise of the former national guard major from rank-and-file Fox weekend television host to Pentagon chief was predicated on his conspicuous courtship of Trump during his first term in office, where he positioned himself, through his television appearances, as a Maga official in waiting.
In the cast of novice choices Trump unveiled for his new cabinet, Hegseth, one of the most vociferous voices in favour of the military operation against Iran, has managed to shake off controversy after controversy without yet alienating his president. So, when Trump was asked about the speculation about a Hegseth presidential bid, he didn’t discount it entirely.
Whenever Trump is consulted about possible successors, he seems intent on resuming the role that gave him the platform from which he launched his own phenomenal political rise, wherein he will act as a show host and adjudicator for a GOP version of The Apprentice. Even if vice-president JD Vance and secretary of state Marco Rubio are the perceived front-runners for 2028, any decent television show needs an interesting cast of contestants.
A recent analysis in the influential political publication The Hill, ranking possible Republican candidates for 2028, has Hegseth in at number seven; lower than both the president’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr, and the right-wing broadcaster Tucker Carlson, but high enough to be in the conversation.
“I think he’s doing a fantastic job, but it’s very early to talk about that,” Trump said when asked about the idea.
“We have to get through the midterms first, and I think he’s a very good guy. But I’ll bet there’s a lot of people considering it that you don’t know about. Right now, all he loves and cares about is taking care of the military.”
Those words might seem encouraging to Hegseth on paper. But Trump’s allusion to getting “through the midterms first” hints at the volatility of his position.
Twenty years ago, the deep unpopularity among American voters and global outrage towards the Bush administration’s war on terror was reflected in dismal midterm election results for the Republicans, in which the Democrats regained control of both chambers.
In the spring of that year, a number of senior retired military figures had openly called for Donald Rumsfeld to leave his role as defence secretary over his handling of the war effort, in what was termed ‘the general’s revolt’.
Two days after the midterms, Rumsfeld resigned. The Republican politicians were unhappy, grousing that if he’d only gone a little earlier, they might have saved a few more seats.