Heathrow expansion would make UK ‘overshoot’ climate targets, report suggestsNew modelling says UK aviation industry is already forecast to exceed limits in the seventh carbon budget, even before third runway is built
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Tom Place, News Reporter2 minutes ago
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Allowing a third runway to be built at Heathrow would “overshoot” the UK’s legally binding climate targets, according to a new report.
The plans to expand the UK’s largest airport, which the Government previously described as “critical to national growth”, have long been opposed by climate experts and the Mayor of London, Lord Sadiq Khan of Tooting.
New modelling published by the University of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – commissioned by environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth – said the UK aviation industry is already forecast to exceed legally binding limits in the seventh carbon budget, part of the national plan to reach net zero by 2050.
That is before a third runway is built and in the wake of recent approved expansions at Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, the report said.
It also highlighted that, based on existing evidence, sustainable aviation fuels, such as used cooking oil, would not be able to close the gap between carbon emissions and targets.
Heathrow AirportPA Wire
A Friends of the Earth senior figure described the Heathrow expansion plans as “the climate equivalent of pouring petrol on a raging wildfire” after summer 2026 was provisionally confirmed as the hottest on record in the UK, with widespread drought and wildfires across the country.
Research fellow Lois Pennington, from the Tyndall Centre, said: “Every aviation scenario the UK Government has published overshoots the carbon budget Parliament has legislated, before a third runway at Heathrow is even taken into account.
“Our analysis shows that aviation cannot continue to grow if the sector is to make a proportionate contribution to meeting the UK’s carbon budgets.
“Sustainable aviation fuels and carbon removals can contribute to limiting aviation emissions, but there is currently no evidence that these technologies can support the scale of aviation expansion envisaged by the Government.”
Mike Childs, head of policy, science and research at Friends of the Earth, said: ”After this summer of record-breaking heat and nearly 3,000 excess deaths, adding a third runway at Heathrow is the climate equivalent of pouring petrol on a raging wildfire.
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“The evidence is clear: there is no route where expansion at Heathrow can be in line with our legally binding climate targets.
“The Government has a choice: commit to taking action on the climate seriously, reject Heathrow expansion and constrain excessive flying, or abandon the UK’s climate targets and future generations by giving the third runway the go-ahead.”
Friends of the Earth have long opposed the expansion of Heathrow airportGetty
After Istanbul surpassed Heathrow as Europe’s busiest airport in July, the west London airport argued that “the case for expansion has never been clearer”.
The airport said it was “operating at capacity” and that its expansion plans “will ensure the country gets the infrastructure it needs to stay competitive and will deliver all-important economic growth”.
Estimated to cost £33 billion, including £1.5 billion to move the M25 to build the runway, the scheme is expected to be fully privately financed.
It would see Heathrow’s capacity increase to 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers per year.
The public consultation on the Government’s Heathrow expansion national policy statement (HENPS) closed on Tuesday and the environmental group and Lord Khan are once again calling on the Government to reject the proposals.
When the consultation was launched in June, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “The Government considers that the development covered by the Heathrow expansion NPS is critical to national growth and therefore plans to designate expansion at Heathrow as critical national growth infrastructure.”
Following the publication of the new report, Lord Khan said he was “deeply concerned” about the potential adverse impacts of Heathrow expansion, citing possible effects to air quality, noise pollution, the environment and other transport networks.
He added: “The truth is the whole case for Heathrow expansion relies on outdated evidence that fails to consider the urgent challenges we face today.
“I will continue to vehemently oppose these plans as I seek to build a fairer, safer, greener, more prosperous London for everyone.”
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “We are grateful to everyone who took the time to engage with the HENPS consultation and have received responses from a wide range of stakeholders.
“We will now carefully consider all responses before setting out next steps later this year.
”We have always been clear that expansion will only go ahead if it is delivered in line with our legally binding climate change obligations, and meets strict environmental rules on air quality and noise pollution.”
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Heathrowexpansioncarbon emissionsHeidi AlexanderDepartment for TransportUK Governmentairportrunwayclimate change