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Hannibal ad portas. “Hannibal is at the door.”
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Trump is the imminent danger “at the door” that Christine Fréchette, CAQ leader and Quebec premier, is using to rally-round-the-flag against, in an attempt to rescue her government from what had seemed certain defeat in October’s election.
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Sounds familiar? It is a very similar to the strategy that Mark Carney used for his own election against Pierre Poilievre.
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A key figure from former premier François Legault’s government, Fréchette was handpicked by party apparatchiks and won a leadership race after Legault resigned this past winter. In power since 2018, Legault was at one time the most popular, and later the least popular, premier of the province this century.
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Trump might not be about to sack Quebec City, but Fréchette is behaving as if he is. In her first campaign news conference on Thursday, she declared with all seriousness, yet could not help but crack a little smirk: “My opponent is named Donald Trump. He’s the real adversary.” The similarity with the Carney campaign is almost uncanny.
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It is not a secret though that her campaign manager, Brigitte Legault, a former federal Liberal, is very close to Carney’s entourage. This association is even more remarkable considering the Liberal Party of Quebec still exists. The Coalition Avenir Québec is using the same playbook in an egregious way, considering Fréchette isn’t even leading trade talks. At least Carney could claim direct responsiblity for dealing with Trump.
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The premier is not an outsider, and her resume is far from being in the same weight class as Carney’s. But, as we say in politics, the first rule is to choose your adversary, and chose she did. A recent Abacus Data poll showed that Donald Trump and his administration is the main issue of concern for Quebec voters at 63 per cent.
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Fréchette is moving away from “how well the CAQ has governed” to “who do you trust to protect Quebec from Trump?” Only one of these questions requires the government to defend its record.
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Fortunately, not everybody is falling for this dog and pony show. Two polls released in the first week of the campaign still show the CAQ in fifth place among 18-34 years old and fourth place among 35 to 54 years old. Most of the party’s support, comes from voters 55 and older, where we find most of the “elbows-up” crowd. Fréchette is leadeing this group by a wide margin.
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Overall, poll aggregator Qc125 on Aug. 30th has the PQ at 29 per cent and the CAQ at 25 per cent, with the Quebec Liberals at 21 per cent. The latter were once at 32 per cent back in April. The Conservative Party of Quebec sits at 15 per cent and the progressive Quebec Solidaire at 10 per cent