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In late 2024, Alberta’s separatists were riding high on a wave of anti-Trudeau sentiment. Public support for the Liberal government had hit fresh lows, and a decade of activist policymaking under the former prime minister had reinforced the province’s longtime skepticism that Ottawa could properly represent its interests.

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Two years on, some Alberta separatists say that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s growing popularity among Canadians — as well as a new oil pipeline deal between Ottawa and Alberta — have likely changed the calculus for many voters ahead of the province’s October referendum.

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“If Justin Trudeau had stayed in power, I’m quite sure we would have been able to (separate),” said Michael Wagner, a committed separatist and author of ‘No Other Option: Self-Determination for Alberta.’ “Because Mark Carney is trying to extend an olive branch, that’s kind of hurting our cause.”

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Wagner, who was partaking in a pro-separatism event in Calgary this weekend called “Capitalism & Morality,” was reflecting the views of many staunch separatists in attendance. While Carney’s efforts to appease Alberta haven’t convinced the separatist movement’s core supporters, people said, the swing in popularity could be enough to nudge more neutral voters away from outright separation.

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“It’s reverse psychology, but our biggest salespeople have always been the Liberals,” Wagner said.

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A new Leger poll puts Carney’s support at 49 per cent in September, up three points from a month earlier. That widens the gap over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, which Leger put one point lower, at 33 per cent. It’s a sharp reversal of Liberal fortunes from late 2024 and early 2025, when Trudeau’s support had slumped to just over 20 per cent, according to various polls at the time.

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Much of Carney’s growing support is a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s taunts against Canada, both in matters of trade and sovereignty, which have galvanized federalist sentiments among Canadian voters.

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In November, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Carney that includes a promise to build a new one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to the B.C. coast, among other energy-related policies and targets.

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The roughly $40-billion project, led by federal Crown agency Trans Mountain Corp., still needs to overcome a long list of political and legal hurdles before it is completed. The pipeline still has no private sector company to lead the development, and doesn’t yet have the right-of-way to build a proposed terminal on the B.C. coast, south of Vancouver.

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Drew Barnes, a former United Conservative Party member who was ousted from Jason Kenney’s caucus in 2021, said there are various headwinds facing the separatist movement. Smith’s increasingly vocal support for Alberta remaining in Canada is one, he said, as well as a “fragmented” media landscape that has stifled pro-independence voices.