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For generations, Alberta has been treated unfairly within Canada, creating immense frustration among many of those who call the province home. I have heard that frustration for decades from business leaders, workers, entrepreneurs and families throughout Alberta, and there are good reasons for it.

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Alberta contributes enormously to Canada’s prosperity yet doesn’t receive fair treatment in return. The equalization formula, which primarily benefits Quebec, is heavily skewed against Alberta. Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have more Senate seats than Alberta.  Major project approvals still take far too long, and federal resource and emissions policies have had an outsized negative economic impact on Alberta.

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These are not minor grievances, and they confirm why the debate over separation cannot simply be dismissed or treated as a question of loyalty to Canada.

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After more than 25 years working with businesses across Alberta, and more recently, through my time on the Alberta Next Panel, one thing has become abundantly clear: from Fort McMurray to Lethbridge, and every place in between, very few Albertans question whether the province deserves better treatment, regardless of where they stand on separation.

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This isn’t about whether Alberta needs change; it’s about how that change is best achieved.

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Many believe the only way to fix the imbalance is to leave Canada altogether. Staunch supporters of separation focus on what a sovereign Alberta could gain: more control over its laws, its resources and its future. That’s an appealing vision for people who feel powerless watching decisions affecting the province being made somewhere else.

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There is little debate that Canada benefits from Alberta remaining in the federation. The harder question, and the one many Albertans are asking, is what Alberta gains by staying. As imperfect as Canada may be, the strongest answer is certainty. Giving up this certainty would be the biggest economic and political gamble in Alberta’s history.

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While the promise of greater power and control may be attractive, a vote to separate would not create an independent Alberta overnight. It would begin years, potentially decades, of negotiations with no guaranteed outcome — plus way more questions than answers.

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Questions about our currency, trade relationships, borders, debt, Indigenous treaties, banking system and access to international markets would all need to be negotiated. Businesses wouldn’t know the rules anymore. Investors wouldn’t know the market. Individuals wouldn’t know if their jobs would still be here.

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If it were to separate, Alberta would be a start-up nation. There is a scenario in which, if everything went in Alberta’s favour, separation might bring about positive economic benefits. But that scenario requires many, many factors to be resolved in Alberta’s favour, and most of those outcomes would be completely out of its control.

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We would be victims to the decisions of other Canadians, other global leaders and other decision makers. Separation means losing control over the majority of factors that will determine whether separation would have positive or negative consequences. That is a very risky and costly gamble.