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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The last time Maine voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1988 for George H. W. Bush, yet in every U.S. Senate race since 1996, the Pine Tree State has elected Republican Senator Susan Collins.
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Even in 2020, when Democrats tied the race to a broader referendum on Donald Trump — and polls predicted she would lose to Democrat Sara Gideon — Collins prevailed. Some Mainers split their tickets, voting for both her and Joe Biden.
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But now, with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings low and tensions with Canada worsening, many pollsters and analysts wonder if Collins’s political fortunes will fade this November.
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“I was cautiously optimistic that Susan Collins — after Graham Platner was such a disaster — was going to pull this off in Maine, and then Trump does this,” said Andrew Hale, fellow for Advancing American Freedom, referring to the reignited tariff war with Ottawa.
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Hale noted how Collins has worked to put space between herself and Trump.
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“She shrewdly has distanced herself from the president and J.D. Vance, who are not popular there,” he said. “She’s articulated why (the tariffs) are wrong for Maine voters … and has actually done quite a lot when it comes to trade to oppose President Trump’s trade war.”
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On August 24, Collins did not attend Vice President JD Vance’s event in Brewer, Maine, where he defended Trump’s tariff war with Canada while campaigning for Republicans. Her campaign cited a scheduling conflict, and Hale called Vance’s trip “really, really unhelpful to Susan Collins.”
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The senator has written to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, seeking clarity on the tariffs and urging a resumption of U.S.-Canada trade talks. She has also voted in the Senate to rescind some of Trump tariffs.
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But pollsters and analysts are unsure whether that will be enough to help Collins win the crossover votes she needs from some Democrats and Independents this cycle.
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A July University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Collins, 49 per cent to 46 per cent. A Fox News Poll conducted by Democratic pollster Beacon Research and Republican pollster Shaw & Company Research in early August found Jackson leading Collins 48 to 46 per cent.
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Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter, lists the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican and the Cook Political Report rates it Lean Republican.
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“It’s gonna be hard for her to win,” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, but noted that she could still pull it off. “I don’t want to dismiss her,” he said, noting how she would need more than 60 per cent of the Independent voters and probably 10 per cent of Democratic voters to do it.