The French presidential elections are underway after the summer break, with the first debate among prospective candidates and Marine le Pen launching her campaign on Sunday.
Whoever wins on May 2nd next year to succeed President Emmanuel Macron faces major challenges domestically and crucial decisions about what direction France will follow in the EU and internationally. The public mood in France is not inclined to deliver a result in continuity with Macron’s centrist economic and social policies, according to opinion polls. They put Le Pen’s radical right-wing National Rally party in a solidly leading position, with the radical left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party most likely to face her in the final runoff vote.
If these two do indeed come through the first round on April 18th, France faces a stark choice, either of which would break decisively with the recent past. Candidates from the centre, centre left and centre right are jostling for position to prevent that. None of them so far looks like establishing a decisive advantage which could challenge Mélenchon’s early prominence.
Major domestic issues concern the state of the economy, France’s high debt levels, immigration, cultural rights for France’s large Muslim minority, pensions and welfare entitlements. Many of these are closely entwined with France’s leading role in the EU, strongly projected by Macron who supports an assertion of European sovereignty in security and defence as the Trump administration fundamentally disrupts transatlantic relations.
Radical plans from Le Pen or Mélenchon – were either to win – would be highly disruptive for the EU in its strategic choice on these issues. Le Pen has promised a “national preference”, giving French people priority in key areas.
The far right Alternative for Germany party’s victory in the Saxony-Anhalt election – and the strong showing by the right in Sweden’s election – strongly reinforces the belief that the French election matters for all other Europeans too.