Last season

Leinster retained their URC title last season with a hat-trick of home wins over South African sides and their display against the Bulls in the final was arguably their best of the season. That was after a first-half blitz by Bordeaux-Bègles in Bilbao, which had decided the Champions Cup final by half-time. So, any season that includes a trophy cannot be considered a failure? Right?

Prospects

Retaining their URC title was unquestionably a bigger achievement than any of their nine triumphs in that competition’s previous iterations. Leinster also reached a sixth Champions Cup final under Leo Cullen.

Yet after doing what was necessary to make their way to another final, Leinster were emphatically beaten by half-time in the decider. Maybe that was a heat and humidity-affected one-off. But maybe the scars have left baggage and an uber-demanding defensive game compounds the energy required for their multi-phase attack.

Perhaps partly because of the so-called ‘Leinster tax’, imposed by David Humphreys, as well as the much-reduced attendances for last season’s knock-out matches, Leinster’s outgoings also significantly outnumber their incomings. In addition to the western exodus to renew acquaintances with Stuart Lancaster – much to Cullen’s evident irritation – there has been a notable loss of stardust in Rieko Ioane and James Lowe. RG Snyman also begins the season sidelined, as does Caelan Doris. Luke McGrath’s departure after 13 seasons leaves a clear void.

They need one or more of Conor O’Tighearnaigh, Josh Ericson and Caspar Gabriel to energise their season. Big impacts from Fintan Gunne and Joey Carbery would also help.

Ioane wasn’t as lauded as Jordie Barrett but his impact was significant. Wrongly blamed for a defensive system error in Bilbao, it’s hard to envisage how Leinster would have coped without Ioane, for he started 16 of his 18 appearances after arriving in December, while scoring six tries and providing several assists.

Finding another A-lister was unlikely in a pre-World Cup season, and nor does it suit the needs of Team Ireland, but this looks another tricky juggling act for Cullen in his farewell season.

The strain of being bulk suppliers to Ireland and the Lions, and indeed the other provinces, is perhaps taking its toll. The return to the RDS and the new Laya Arena is timely, not least as the grand unveiling in round three against Cardiff is a week before their opening European trip to Clermont Auvergne, who will have played six games by then.

Leinster then host Munster and visit Connacht ahead of the Nations Championship hiatus, after which they regroup away to the Ospreys before Glasgow (home), Munster (away), Ulster (home), Pau (home) and Leicester (away). And the Six Nations will invariably leave a mark on Leinster.

There are encouraging auguries though. Cullen captained Leinster to their 2011 Heineken Cup, and in the last two pre-World Cup seasons Leinster reached the finals in 2019 and 2023, while winning the Pro14 in 2019 before losing a home semi-final to Munster three years ago. That was one of only three defeats in 28 matches that season. Alas, one of the others was against La Rochelle in the Champions Cup final at the Aviva Stadium.

Transfers

In: Joey Carbery (outhalf, 30, from Bordeaux), Peter Dooley (prop, 31, Connacht), Stephen Smyth (hooker, 22, promoted from academy), Conor O’Tighearnaigh (lock, 23,promoted from academy), Josh Kenny (winger, 23, promoted from academy)

Out: Rieko Ioane (centre, 29, to Blues), Luke McGrath (scrumhalf, 33, Perpignan), Jerry Cahir (prop, 25, Connacht), Will Connors (backrow, 30, Connacht), Ciarán Frawley (outhalf, 28, Connacht), James Lowe (winger, 34, Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath), Rabah Slimani (prop, 36, Toulon), John McKee (hooker, 26, Scarlets)

Off-field picture

Today sees a soft opening for the RDS in the shape of a preseason friendly against Zebre in front of about 8,000. The return to the renamed Laya Arena after the €59 million completion of the new stand and an absence of over two years cannot come soon enough.

Beginning with a full house of 20,500 for the visit of Cardiff on October 10th, it should be a boost for fans and squad. Aviva Stadium fatigue had contributed to the sharp decline in attendances, with last season’s five home knock-out ties in the Champions Cup and the URC (save for the final) drawing a total of 103,724 spectators, compared with 214,397 for the equivalent five fixtures in 2023-24.

Leinster have ‘earned’ 22 home knock-out fixtures in the last four seasons compared to Munster’s two ties, and maybe their fans have become spoilt. Yet even allowing for last season’s far-less-glamorous ties, that is still an alarming decline in attendances.

Head coach: Leo Cullen

Cullen is entering his 12th and final season, with Felipe Contepomi the strong front-runner to succeed him for what will be a challenging first, post-World Cup campaign. Cullen’s legacy should be secure after leading Leinster to 13 finals, while also remaining bulk suppliers to Ireland. The seven trophies accumulated include winning their last six finals in the Pro 14/URC. Yet he, the organisation and fan base would dearly love to add one more Champions Cup triumph in his tenure.

Stat attack

For all the narrative around Jacques Nienaber’s defence, it’s worth noting that Leinster again scored the most tries in the 18-game URC regular season (77 as against 79 the season before) and added another 16 in three knock-out games.

Set for a breakthrough

Luke McGrath remained second-choice scrumhalf until the very end but his departure leaves the door ajar for Fintan Gunne, Cormac Foley and Oliver Coffey. Although Gunne is 23, he only has 33 appearances to his name. All but seven of those have been off the bench, and only once has he played in the Champions Cup. He has a very complete all-round game and is strong and brave, so if he is to have a breakthrough season, this should be it.

International impact

In theory, this coming season should be a doddle by comparison to the last one. While some of their 18 Irish summer tourists will most likely miss the opener against the Lions, they will be free to play against the Sharks in their opening trek to South Africa. But Ireland will have another four Nations Championship matches in November as well as the Six Nations. Although recent history suggests otherwise, the proximity of the World Cup could impact Leinster’s customary end-of-season hunt for silverware.

Forecast

Finishing first and winning a third URC title in a row would be a serious achievement. While they could again go deep into the Champions Cup, a fifth star still looks elusive as beating Bordeaux-Bègles and/or Toulouse will be a tall challenge, especially as the final will effectively be another away tie in Lyon on May 22nd.