Brent oil is closing in on $100 a barrel as traders watch for details of an Iranian deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while strong Chinese buying tightens the market.
The global benchmark is less than $3 shy of triple figures after rallying last week on a flare-up in Middle East hostilities. Iran said the accord is imminent and will include a temporary safe route, raising questions about how the US would respond after striking Iranian tankers over the weekend. Tehran also warned that ships face the risk of attack near Oman.
Oil futures are pushing higher on fears about deeper disruptions to energy flows through the waterway after renewed fighting between the US and Iran ended a period of relative calm. Chinese refiners have also stepped up crude purchases, boosting prices for grades from Africa, Canada and Latin America, though the increase doesn’t necessarily signal a sustained recovery in demand.
“Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict,” Goldman Sachs Group analysts including Daan Struyven wrote in a note, modestly raising their oil-price estimates on the assumption that shipping disruptions will persist into 2027. “Risks to our price forecast remain significantly tilted to the upside.”
Brent has surged more than 30 per cent since the US and Israel attacked Iran more than six months ago, although the benchmark is well below the high above $126 a barrel reached in late April. Refined fuels such as diesel have rallied even further as the Russia-Ukraine war added to tightness.
Iran and Oman have been seeking to formalize control of the strait, and could eventually charge transit fees. The US, which is blockading Iranian ports to curb exports from the Islamic Republic, wants Hormuz to return to its pre-war status as a freely navigable waterway.
Despite risks to shipping, oil shipments continue to exit the Persian Gulf. Daily flows through Hormuz remain at roughly 10 million barrels, mostly made up of crude, Vitol Group chief executive Russell Hardy said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference by S&P Global Energy in Singapore on Tuesday. Still, he warned that oil-product markets are flashing signs of tightness.
Chinese crude imports strengthened in August, as cargoes from the Persian Gulf crept higher and refiners increased purchases from other sources, according to customs data on Tuesday. Higher purchases has allowed the nation to export more oil products, offering some relief to global markets.
Following the recent flare-up in hostilities, Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee said the “operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.” The US has been given “clear warning” about Iran’s missiles in recent days, the senior security official said in a post on X.
“We’ve seen so many twists and turns since late February, and every time we thought we were going to get somewhere, it has been ripped apart,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “We’re back to almost square one.” – Bloomberg