On the agenda at a meeting of European Affairs ministers in Dublin is the highly divisive issue of agreeing a proposed €2 trillion EU budget for the next seven years.
Whether the Irish presidency can reach a compromise between two warring groups of nations will go a long way to determining the success or otherwise of Ireland’s EU presidency.
A group of northern member states led by Germany and including Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark and Finland want hundreds of billions slashed from the proposed budget and spending priorities to focus on improving the EU’s competitiveness.
In the other corner, a bloc of southern member states, including Italy, Spain and Portugal, are opposed to any budget cuts and want the spending to focus on agriculture and regional funding.
So far, both sides have refused to cede any ground. And there is a relatively short window to find a compromise. Next year there are elections in France, Italy and Spain. There is a possibility that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right, could become the next French president. She has vowed to significantly reduce France’s EU budget contributions, which would make reaching an agreement difficult under her presidency.
It is important that areas of compromise can be identified at the meeting in Dublin that lay the groundwork for a breakthrough at the crucial EU Council meeting on October 18th.
The proposed €2 trillion budget is 1.26 per cent of the EU’s GDP over the next seven years. Previous budgets have been capped at 1 per cent. It should be relatively straightforward to find a compromise on the level of funding, but spending priorities remains a highly vexed issue.
Ireland has had some notable diplomatic achievements during past EU presidencies, not least brokering an agreement in 2004 that paved that way for the accession of ten east European member states. It now faces another task which is vital if the EU is to move forward coherently over the next few years.