Labour has taken a narrow polling lead over Reform UK for the first time in a year and a half as voters warmed to Andy Burnham in September.

The latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll has shown that Labour now enjoys 26 per cent of the voter share, ahead of Reform UK, which is on 25 per cent as of September. 

The Tories slipped by three points to 20 per cent as Kemi Badenoch adjusted to taking on a new opponent across the dispatch box in Parliament. The Greens and Liberal Democrats each sat on 11 per cent of the voter share, according to the latest figures. 

The rise in popularity for Labour provides a much-needed boost to the governing party after Sir Keir Starmer had seen support decline. 

The difference between Labour and Reform UK is within the margin of error for polling, however. 

It is the first time City AM/Freshwater Strategy polling has shown Labour to be ahead of Reform since February 2025.

Labour’s tougher months ahead

Burnham has used his first two months as Prime Minister to trump up his plans for “good growth in every postcode”. He opened ‘Number 10 North’ in Manchester and announced a number of small policies cutting taxes from energy bills and business rates for pubs and music venues. 

His approval rating jumped up by five points to 17 in September. Badenoch and Sir Ed Davey were the only other leaders in positive territory at a net score of three each. 

Nigel Farage’s approval ratings slipped to -24 as scrutiny over donations to Reform UK intensified. Zack Polanski’s score edged up to -20 from -24 in August.  

According to the polling, Burnham leads by 24 points in a three-way contest for preferred Prime Minister. Around 45 per cent back Burnham over Farage and Badenoch, who are both backed by 21 per cent each. 

In a head-to-head between Badenoch and Farage, the Tory leader wins by around 25 points on 52 per cent compared to 27 per cent for the Reform leader. 

More difficult decisions may be coming for Burnham as economists at City consultancies have predicted that tax rises at the Budget are highly likely. 

The cost of living is the top voter issue and has been for around a year, ahead of areas such as reducing immigration and improving healthcare.

Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,249 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 4 – 6 September 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.