ByEmlyn BegleyBBC Sport journalist

  • Published21 minutes ago

Four games is far too soon to be talking about who is in or out of the title race… isn’t it?

And yet Arsenal and Manchester City, who have been the top two in three of the past four seasons, look a level above everyone else so far.

Is it already a two-horse race?

With new (or newish) managers, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham were all looking for better things this season.

But so far their starts range from shaky to shambolic.

How good have top two been?

Arsenal and Manchester City are the only two teams with 12 points from four games.

They are already four points above third-placed Hull City – who despite their brilliant early form may not consider themselves in any kind of title equation – and five above the rest.

Arsenal are the defending champions and pre-season title favourites.

Under manager Mikel Arteta they ended a 22-year title drought last season with what was often perceived to be an attritional style of play.

They started this season with a hugely impressive 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.

And they have carried on with victories over Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland – plus Napoli in the Champions League.

Including last season, they are now on a nine-game winning run in the league – and last lost in any competition in 90 minutes to City on 19 April.

Unlike Arsenal, City do not have the continuity this season with boss Pep Guardiola leaving after six titles, including a Treble, in 10 years.

Enzo Maresca, once his assistant, has taken over and led them to four wins from four in the league after that loss in Cardiff to the Gunners.

They have beaten Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry – plus Porto in the Champions League – before their controversial 1-0 success at Manchester United on Sunday.

Erling Haaland scored the only goal, with the Premier League’s refereeing body later admitting a mistake as it should have been ruled out for offside.

Despite their 100% starts, the underlying numbers behind Arsenal and City’s starts do not imply total dominance.

Brighton (13) and Chelsea (10) have scored more goals than the eight that the top two have both netted.

For shots, Arsenal and City rank 10th and 11th and touches in the opposition box they are sixth and fifth respectively.

Arsenal have only conceded once and City have let in two goals – two of the best records in the league.

How about the rest?

The next three favourites to win the title with most bookmakers – in order – were Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United – with Tottenham some way back.

Chelsea and Liverpool both sacked their managers, bringing in Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola respectively in the summer.

United and Spurs both changed manager earlier in 2026, with Michael Carrick and Roberto de Zerbi having their first pre-seasons.

Last season, Chelsea finished 10th, Liverpool as defending champions were fifth, and Spurs came 17th – with United ending up third after turning things around under Carrick.

So for all four hopes were high this was going to be a better season.

Chelsea are fifth, with only one defeat so far, and have scored 10 goals… but conceded nine – the fourth worst record in the division.

They have conceded two or more goals in each of their first four matches of a Premier League season for the first time since 2015-16.

Liverpool are down in seventh, unbeaten after four games – but three of those are draws.

It is just the third time in the last 63 seasons they have failed to win either of their first two home league games.

United are 13th with four points – equalling their worst start to a Premier League season since 1992-93… level with last season.

They have had more shots than anybody else in the league – 84 – and the second fewest shots conceded (41).

Despite that they have conceded as many as they have scored – seven.

Spurs would not have considered themselves in the title race after two 17th-placed finishes but would have hoped for a better start as they currently sit… 17th.

And even worse than that, it was the first time in the club’s history they have failed to score in their first four league games.

What does history tell us?

ByChris AdamsBBC Sport journalist

Prior to this campaign, 80 teams in the English top-flight have won their first four league games of the season.

Of those, just 24 went on to win the title, proving that early dominance does not necessarily mean a side will last the pace.

In the Premier League era, nine of the 28 sides to win four on the bounce at the start of a season have gone on to lift the title, most recently Manchester City in 2023-24.

As the graphic below shows, there have been just six previous Premier League seasons in which two or more teams have won each of their first four fixtures.

And the bad news for the chasing pack is that just two clubs have won the Premier League having been five or more points behind after four games.

Manchester United did it five times under Sir Alex Ferguson (1992-93, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2007-08 and 2008-09), while Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City acheived the feat in 2020-21.

Related topics

More on this story