From fearful to fearsome: Why the Blues are no longer spooked by pressure

For a long time, Carlton’s enormous supporter base appeared to be as much a burden as a source of strength.

Its passion came attached to expectation. When games began to turn, the Blues often seemed to feel the consequences of losing before the result had been decided. The noise became heavier, the football tighter and the fear of another disappointment difficult to escape.

Under Josh Fraser, that relationship has changed.

Carlton are no longer shrinking from the emotion surrounding the club. They are leaning into it, turning pressure into energy rather than treating it as something to fear.

That shift was evident against Melbourne in front of more than 91,000 people. After conceding the opening four goals, the Blues could easily have been swallowed by the occasion. Instead, they remained composed, trusted their system and gradually worked their way back into the contest.

Fraser said afterwards that his players did not become “spooked”. They stayed connected when momentum was against them and delivered what he described as a mature performance.

That response demonstrated how far Carlton have come. This is not simply a side playing with greater freedom because the coach has changed. The Blues have developed a clearer game plan, greater trust in one another and, most importantly, evidence that both can stand up under pressure.

Belief can be spoken about inside football clubs until it loses all meaning. Fraser has given Carlton something more valuable: proof.

The Blues have beaten Fremantle, reigning premiers Brisbane and Friday night’s opponent Geelong during their extraordinary run into September. After starting the season with a 1-8 win-loss record, they have won 12 and drawn one of 15 matches.

They no longer enter games against the competition’s strongest sides hoping their best might be enough. They know it can be.

Their wildcard victory provided another piece of evidence. Melbourne dominated the opening stages, but Carlton refused to panic. The Blues remained patient before overpowering the Demons at the contest, winning the final-quarter contested-possession count 44-22.

Fraser has also reduced the feeling that Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh or another star must rescue Carlton individually. After Saturday night’s win, he spoke about players being reliable in their roles and trusting the teammate beside them to do the same.

That shared responsibility is critical in finals. Emotion can ignite a team, but it cannot sustain one unless there is a dependable system beneath it.

Carlton now have that system.

Under Fraser, the Blues have become a far more controlled possession team. Their average of 100.8 uncontested marks a game under him was the highest in the competition at the time of the AFL’s analysis, up significantly from 79 under Michael Voss.

They use shorter kicks, change angles and are less inclined to simply drive the ball long down the line. Their defensive-50m to forward-50m transition rate has risen from 21.6 per cent under Voss to 28 per cent under Fraser.

That control has also strengthened Carlton defensively. During Fraser’s tenure, the Blues moved into the top four for points against, scores conceded per opposition inside- 50m and scores conceded from turnover.

Fraser has not just made Carlton feel better. He has given the players a repeatable method that reinforces their confidence every time it stands up.

Geelong’s first challenge on Friday night will be matching the Blues’ intensity early.

Carlton will arrive hardened by a high-pressure final and energised by a huge navy Blue crowd. Geelong have enjoyed a week off to study the Blues, but they have also had a week longer to contemplate what is at stake.

The Cats cannot afford to ease into the contest. If they are passive around the ball or allow Carlton to establish their uncontested marking game, the energy inside the MCG could quickly become a major factor.

But Geelong are one of the teams best equipped to absorb that opening surge.

Their season numbers demonstrate why. The Cats rank first in the competition for time spent in their forward half and forward-half intercepts. They are also second for points generated from turnover, fourth for contested possessions and sixth for points from stoppage.

It is a profile made for finals: win or halve the contest, lock the ball in the front half and punish the opposition when they make a mistake.

That territorial strength will directly challenge Carlton’s new method. The Blues want time and space to possess the ball, take uncontested marks and shift the opposition. Geelong will attempt to deny them that freedom by keeping the ball trapped at the other end.

The Cats also have their own distinctive method with the ball. They rank first for exiting defensive 50m through the boundary and fourth for switch kicks, but 17th for using the corridor. Yet, they are third for playing on after a mark, showing that controlled football does not necessarily mean slow football.

Geelong are prepared to use the width of the ground, move the opposition’s defensive shape and then accelerate when the opening appears.

That is where their experience can become so important. Carlton will want the game to feel emotional and unpredictable. The Cats must match the Blues’ heat without allowing the atmosphere to hurry their decisions.

If Carlton’s pressure forces Geelong into rushed kicks, the crowd’s influence will grow. But if the Cats can withstand the early assault, maintain possession and repeatedly make the Blues defend the width of the MCG, they can begin to take the emotion out of the contest.

Carlton’s four-point win over Geelong earlier this season adds another layer. Cripps’ towering late mark and winning goal showed the Blues they could survive a Geelong surge and deliver in the decisive moment.

It was one of the first major pieces of evidence supporting their newfound belief.

On Friday night, Carlton will bring momentum, emotion and a supporter base that Fraser has transformed from a source of pressure into a weapon. Geelong will counter with territory, experience and structure.

The question is whether the Blues can again ride that energy – or whether the Cats can stay calm long enough to methodically squeeze it out of them.

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Join us on Thursday night for our live blog of the first qualifying final between Fremantle and Hawthorn at Optus Stadium in Perth.

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Libby Birch is a four-time AFLW premiership player.AdvertisementAdvertisement