Article content

Here’s the Bank of Canada’s official statement for its rate decision:

Sign In or Create an Account

or View more offersArticle content

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent.

Article contentWe apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, or
tap here to see other videos from our team.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, or
tap here to see other videos from our team.Article content

The continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high. As well, new U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-measures have been announced following the breakdown of trade talks between Canada and the United States. Both situations remain fluid.

Article content

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

In the United States, economic growth continues to be solid, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area was stronger than expected in the second quarter, while China’s economy slowed. Overall, the global economy has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds, with growth broadly consistent with the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. With still-high oil prices and elevated margins for refined energy products, inflation in most countries remains high.

Article contentArticle content

Financial conditions have tightened since July. Long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada. The Canadian dollar has appreciated slightly on U.S.-dollar weakness.

Article content

As expected, Canadian economic activity strengthened in the second quarter, with GDP up by 3.3 per cent, following very weak growth in the first quarter. While some of the recent strength reflected temporary factors, the pick-up in activity was broad-based. Consumption showed solid gains. Following several weak quarters, there was some rebound in housing activity. Exports and business investment were up sharply. Labour market conditions have improved in recent months, with the unemployment rate edging down to 6.4 per cent in July. Still, demand for labour remains subdued and indicators point to continued excess supply in the economy.

Article content

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

Overall, recent data reaffirm Governing Council’s view of a broadening recovery in Canada’s economy. However, uncertainty is high and new U.S. tariffs and threats of further action pose risks to the sustainability of the recovery.

Article contentRead More

  1. Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates steady
  2. Economists impressed with GDP data, expect interest rates to hold
  3. Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

CPI inflation has been hovering around three per cent in recent months, mainly because of persistently higher gasoline prices. So far, there has been little evidence of higher energy prices spreading to other components of inflation: excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2 per cent and measures of core inflation remained close to two per cent in July. However, with the Middle East conflict still ongoing and little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz, upside risks to the Bank’s inflation forecast have increased. The longer that high oil prices and elevated refinery margins persist, the greater the risk of spillover to the prices of other goods and services. New U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs will also raise costs for some businesses and could feed into consumer prices over time.

Article content

With the economy and inflation evolving broadly as forecast in the July MPR, Governing Council agreed to leave the policy rate unchanged. However, the upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain. Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. The Bank remains committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Article content