The by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer is being used as a test run for Andy Burnham to decide whether to pull the trigger on an early general election, Labour sources have told The Independent.
The Holborn and St Pancras contest, widely expected to be held on 8 October, was called after Sir Keir called an immediate end to his parliamentary career earlier this month, after being ousted as prime minister and Labour leader.
But with Green leader Zack Polanski now standing in the seat as a candidate, The Independent has been told Labour strategists around Mr Burnham say it will be a clear test of whether the change of leadership has killed off the rising threat to the party from the Greens.
Labour has selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, who came to the UK as a child refugee, as their candidate for the seat.
A party source told The Independent: “Because Keir’s seat was a target and Polanski is running in it, this gives the PM a perfect opportunity to see if the Green threat has gone with a change of leader.
“We are seeing people come back [from the Greens] to Labour. Under Keir, there was no doubt that we were losing lots of supporters and party members to the Greens.”
They added: “If we can beat Polanski in a by-election it will show that Labour is in good shape to fight a general election.”
It was noted by another source that the decision to sanction Israeli settlers and take a firmer stance against the Netanyahu government had “nullified some of the Green appeal” to Labour voters.
“This by-election will be a test of that,” they added.
Downing Street has pointed out that Mr Burnham told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg at the beginning of September that he would not call an early election.
He said: “I’m going to rule it out… I don’t think people want it.”
But it comes amid growing speculation that Mr Burnham could go for a snap poll in November with tricky decisions on tax and spend ahead of him and a lack of mandate as prime minister, bound by Sir Keir’s manifesto.
While polling experts including professor Sir John Curtice have warned against an early election because the “Burnham bounce” has not been enough to give Labour a big enough lead, the prospect of one is still understood to be under consideration.
This has been fuelled by Whitehall sources saying that civil servants have been handed training on running the country without a government – which usually refers to the period of a general election when Parliament is not sitting.
Already, other parties are preparing for an early election, with Reform claiming the £72m it received this week from two crypto billionaires is to fund an election war chest with the expectation Mr Burnham plans to call one in the coming months.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has also requested a pre-election briefing of the government books by civil servants on the basis that there may be an early poll.
Another source said that Sir Keir may have been encouraged to quit early so they could use his seat to test whether an early election was feasible.
They said: “Labour advisors are using the by-election result as the decider on calling a snap this year or not.
“One suggested this was thought-up as a ‘poll-proof fail-safe’ around early August, and then led to pushing Starmer to resign and using his seat for various reasons the others have said that this came about as a result of Starmer resigning, and seeing an opportunity to determine the board at play.”
It is understood though that Labour believes the Burnham honeymoon period is “going better than expected”, with policies, such as removing VAT from energy bills and capping bus fares to £2 going down well with voters. But they fear it is coming to an end.
Polls also show a lead for Labour over scandal-hit Reform, while the Tories under Ms Badenoch continue to struggle with their share of the support in the late teens.
On Saturday, pollsters Opinium put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform 25 per cent and the Tories 19 per cent. The Greens are on 11 per cent well below the level they hit when Sir Keir was leader.
Meanwhile, Mr Burnham has a +5 leader rating, Ms Badenoch +1, Mr Polanski is now at -22 and Mr Farage -26.
Mr Polanski though believes he can pull off a victory in the constituency, saying he is “incredibly confident” about winning in Holborn and St Pancras.
He said: “I’ve been door knocking in every single ward in the constituency. I’m hearing the same thing over and over again, that people are really excited to vote Green.”
In campaign video he credited a series of Labour U-turns on welfare, the Middle East and other issues as being “thanks to pressure from the Greens.”
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