TWO AFC heavyweights collide in the pick of the games in the first early Sunday slate of the 2026/27 NFL season.
The Texans are entering year 4 under head coach DeMeco Ryans, who has led them to the Divisional Round of the playoffs in each of his first three seasons. Meanwhile, the Bills decided to part ways with Sean McDermott, and have promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady, after a series of painful postseason defeats.
We have chosen four of our favourite props for the game in Houston, which pays out at combined odds of 22/1 with bet365.
💡 Our Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills bet builder selections
Even though three of four picks focus on the Bills, they can all come to fruition regardless of the ‘game state’ and even if the Texans ultimately win the game.
🤠 David Montgomery to score a touchdown (21/20)
WHY: David Montgomery was part of the “two-headed monster” in the Detroit backfield for three seasons alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, but was traded to Houston in March where he has since signed a two-year deal. Montgomery should establish himself as RB1 (i.e. the man getting the lion’s share of the carries) for the Texans, who have seen several rushers come and go in recent seasons – including the likes of Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb.
Montgomery has been a reliable short-yardage and goal-line back for several seasons, scoring 33 times in those three years with the Lions, mostly from the red zone.
KEY STAT: The Bills defence gave up the fifth most rushing yards last season (2315), the third most yards per carry (5.1) and the joint most rushing touchdowns (24). The Texans should look to ‘pound the rock.’
🏈 Josh Allen to score a touchdown (13/10)
WHY: Josh Allen is almost impossible to stop. Not only is he one of the best passers in the league, he is probably the most dangerous quarterback when he uses his legs. That could be the go-to weapon in the Bills’ offense here, given the opposition.
The Texans defence recorded 47 sacks last season – only six teams managed more – and it’s the same story when it comes to passing yards allowed (where they ranked 7th). Even in the playoff game they lost to the New England Patriots, the likes of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr were regularly pressuring Drake Maye – sacking him five times and forcing four fumbles.
The best way for the Bills to avoid turnovers could therefore be to prioritise the running game – with Allen as well as their running back James Cook.
KEY STAT: Allen has averaged almost one rushing touchdown per game in each of the last three seasons – recording 15, 12 and 14 in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively. Even considering the Texans’ top defence, to get odds above Evens on this is too good to turn down.
🎯 Dalton Kincaid to record a 20+ yard reception (29/20)
WHY: The Bills traded for receiver DJ Moore in the offseason but their group of pass catchers still somewhat lacks in comparison to most others vying for a championship. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has, in the past, been a guy who can stretch the field.
KEY STAT: Kincaid’s targets and receptions suffered a sharp drop off last season but his yards per reception rose – from 10.2 yards to 14.6. His longest reception (in every game where he had at least one reception) was 20 yards or over in all but one game last season – and even that was close to hitting the mark at 18 yards!
🎯 DJ Moore to catch 4 or more passes (10/11)
WHY: To add Moore into the equation, he should lead the Bills in most receiving metrics this season – given the team traded a second round pick to acquire him from the Chicago Bears and he has by far and away the most production of any Bills pass catcher in his NFL career. As it will be his debut, against a tough defence, the Bills play callers will want to get him involved but going for his catch numbers, rather than his receiving yards, is the best bet. His over/under line for receptions is at 3.5.
KEY STAT: DJ Moore has played all 17 games in each of the past five seasons, and has only missed two games in his entire career. He would’ve hit this ‘over’ of having 4 or more catches in 10 of his 19 games last season with the Bears (including the playoffs).
🗞️ Stats & news that matter for your Texans vs Bills bet builder
Stat 1: David Montgomery is listed as RB1 on the Texans’ depth chart, following the announcement of the final 53-man rosters – ahead of Woody Marks. He should be receiving the bulk of the carries for Houston.
Stat 2: Josh Allen is one year removed from winning the league’s MVP award and will be desperate to finally get his team to the Super Bowl this year. He is widely regarded as one of the top two or three quarterbacks in the NFL. Beating the Texans on the road would send out a statement.
Stat 3: Bills receivers Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman are listed as ‘questionable’. While Dalton Kincaid may be a tight end, he is a very prominent piece of their passing jigsaw – if either of these receivers (or any others) were to miss the game, Kincaid’s target share should only increase.
Stat 4: DJ Moore is listed as WR1 on the Buffalo Bills’ depth chart and Josh Allen should, therefore, look his way more often.
🏈 Back our 22/1 Texans vs Bills bet builder at bet365 🏈
📺 Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills game details
- Date: Sunday 13th September 2026
- Time: 6pm BST
- Stadium: NRG Stadium, Houston
- TV/Streaming: Sky Sports (either as the selected live game or follow via RedZone), NFL Game Pass (DAZN)
About the author
Craig Mahood
Craig Mahood is an expert in sports betting and online casinos and has worked with the company since 2020. He joined the Betting & Gaming team at The Sun in June 2022 and works closely with the leading bookmakers and online gaming companies to provide content on all areas of sports betting and gaming. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter at the Scottish Sun, covering Scottish football with particular focus on Celtic and Rangers, As well as football, he has covered horse racing, boxing, darts, the Olympics and tennis for the Sun.
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