Simon Harris dipped back into political history for inspiration this week – all the way back as far as Leo Varadkar.
Addressing the Mullingar Chamber of Commerce on Monday morning – just 25 miles from Tullamore, where Micheál Martin was opening the Fianna Fáil think-in, so no doubt the Tánaiste regretted the clash – he talked about how the forthcoming budget would look after the “people who get up early in the morning”. This looks to me like he is giving a signal about Fine Gael’s priorities in advance of the next election and beyond. If so, it will be a significant development in Irish politics.
Harris’s formulation of “people who get up early in the morning” wasn’t an accident, a random turn of phrase by a speech writer. He mentioned people getting up in the morning (including the early risers) and going to work five times during a speech of 2,000 words (of which 250 were spent gassing on about Gaelic football). There were a further nine references to people who work hard and the need to make hard work pay. It was a clear message, amplified by Harris at the Fine Gael think-in.
The people who get up early in the morning to work hard, etc, have a special place in recent Fine Gael history. When Varadkar launched his bid for the leadership of Fine Gael in 2017, following the retirement of Enda Kenny, he chose precisely this formulation of words and this message to appeal to the party’s faithful and its public representatives.
His pitch immediately chimed with Fine Gaelers and was one of the reasons why Varadkar stormed to victory over Simon Coveney, who campaigned on a “just society” platform. In his memoir, Varadkar recalled how his message had been framed by commentators as “red meat to Fine Gael’s conservative base and centre-right voters generally”. He complained that this “misrepresented what I was trying to say and what I stood for”, but also acknowledged “that reading of my remarks would go down well in some quarters”. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
At its most basic, in policy terms, the “people who get up early” agenda means restraining public spending increases and therefore freeing up resources for tax cuts and other relief for “middle Ireland”, the “squeezed middle”, the “people who pay for everything” (choose your own term). Varadkar used to talk about this, but never convincingly steered government policy, or Fine Gael’s electoral offering, in this direction.
It is not a matter of either tax cuts or public spending increases. Rather, it is a matter of degree and of balance between the two priorities. Nowadays the Government spends, give or take, an additional €10 billion every year. This is what we call “the Budget”, but in fact it’s just the annual addition to the overall budget for running the State, which is about €125 billion next year (although even that massive figure excludes things like interest on the national debt and EU contributions).
In the forthcoming budget, the Government will announce spending increases and tax cuts of about €8.5 billion (though overspending will eventually bring the increase above €10 billion). Of that, €1.5 billion will be in tax cuts, and €7 billion will be in spending increases – a Budget Day ratio of nearly 5:1 in favour of spending increases. This is actually lower than the pre-election budgets where the ratio in favour of spending increases to tax cuts was about 9:1.
We will see whether this is a serious political move to try to change the game in Fine Gael’s favour with a clear new direction, or merely a pursuit of headlines
If you want to prioritise tax cuts, then the first task is to control the increases in public spending, in order to free up resources. But as Jack Chambers is finding out, that is a politically difficult task. Lots of people are in favour of restraint in public spending; very few are in favour of it on their own patch.
But what Harris seems to be signalling is that he is preparing to pitch Fine Gael’s offering in these terms. Conversations with Fine Gaelers do not dissuade me from this analysis.
Sinn Féin’s strategy is built on the hope that something will turn up
There is a view in Fine Gael, held by many senior figures, that Varadkar could have been a much more electorally successful leader of Fine Gael but that he lost his way in government, becoming convinced (as most politicians who serve in government do) of the desirability of increased government spending. Or maybe he just got trapped in a cycle of conceding to ministerial demands for it. Whatever the reason, the people who get up early were left disappointed. Is Harris getting ready for another go?
Since the last election began well and finished badly, Harris has faced the question of how he is going to fight the next one. The challenge for any Fine Gael leader is to distinguish his party from Fianna Fáil among centre-ground voters – but not enough to alienate Fianna Fáil voters. The same applies in reverse.
It is a delicate enough balancing operation; Martin proved Harris’s superior the last time out, but next time Harris won’t be facing Martin (almost certainly) and he will be the one with experience and a relatively inexperienced foe. Outside observers may be surprised that the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael leaders should regard their chief task as being to outpoll their partners in government, but I assure you it is so.
We will see whether this is a serious political move to try to change the game in Fine Gael’s favour with a clear new direction, or merely a pursuit of headlines. More than any policy area, the proof of the pudding here will be in the eating. There may be an appetite for tax cuts among the people who get up, etc, but there will be none whatsoever for just talking about it.
Like anything in politics, and in life, it requires choices. If you promise to prioritise the people who get up early in the morning, you can’t spend your time delivering breakfast in bed to a bunch of other lads.