It has been a challenging year for tour and travel operators, and it’s not over yet.

Seasonality, which means the predictable ups and downs in bookings, visitor numbers and revenue that happen cyclically and at regular times throughout the year, has changed.

Consumer behaviour has been affected by war, global uncertainty, high fuel prices, the cost of living and the concept of ‘Europe on fire’ due to climate change.

Traditionally, the busiest period for sales in the travel industry has always been around the first and second quarter, so sales in the first half of the year for the summer season are critical.

But at the end of February when the Middle East conflict began, uncertainty for holiday makers carried into March and April and continued into May with slow bookings.

This left the travel industry impacted by three months of poor sales at a crucial time for the sector.

The Director and Co-Founder of Click and Go Paul Hackett is forecasting that 2026 sales will finish below 2025 figures.

“I think losing those three key months in the early part of the year and then the late being a little bit sluggish with the good weather here, it’s going to make it very hard to recover between now and the end of the year to recover those gaps,” he explained.

“There isn’t enough time between now mid-September to the end of December to get people to book and travel within the calendar year,” he added.

Mr Hackett believes 2027 sales will be up on this year, but the challenge next year is going to be where oil prices will be, how airlines are going to hedge and how that is going to translate into potentially higher prices.

Following a weak start to the year, a good summer in Ireland led to more people putting off booking a summer holiday, consumers paused to enjoy the sunshine at home.

“We had the double whammy of good weather at home and intense heat abroad and a lot of coverage of fires in parts of France and close to Madrid, which got widespread coverage,”

“So, between the challenges due to the war and then the challenges due to the good weather here and the heat abroad, it didn’t make for an altogether great year,” highlighted Mr Hackett.

Coming into shoulder season between Summer and Winter, there are good deals to be had this Autumn for anyone still looking for a holiday after staycationing during the Summer.

Research by Click&Go Holidays shows that families with the flexibility to travel in September instead of August can save almost €1,000 on the cost of a package holiday.

The online travel company compared package holiday prices for a family of two adults and two children across five of Ireland’s most popular family holiday destinations – Salou, the Algarve, Majorca, the Costa del Sol and Gran Canaria – and found that travelling in September costs, on average, 39% less than travelling in August.

The analysis found that the average cost of an August family holiday is €632 per person, compared with just €383 per person in September.

This represents an average saving of €249 per person, or almost €1,000 for a family of four.

In the company’s Q2 Travel Sentiment survey it found that 57% of parents travelling with children would take their children out of school to save money on holiday prices, this compares to 64% in their March Survey.

These figures highlight that cost remains a key consideration for many families when planning overseas travel.

Moving out of the summer holiday period, availability opens up and prices become competitive for the off-peak months.

Reports from the travel sector indicate that holidays in September and October are selling well, but the volume of people looking to travel at this time of year drops so it’s not possible to make up for slow sales in the first and second quarter.

While reports on sales for November and Decembers are what experts in the sector call “soft”.

This is because what they’re seeing this year is that consumers are purchasing very close to departure.

With travel being a real supply and demand market, Mr Hackett said all the European markets saw what was seen in Ireland this year.

“All of the uncertainty that was there in April and May, concerns over fuel surcharges was reflected across other markets in Europe.

“We had that information coming through the Irish Travel Agents Association and coming in from the European group of travel agents as well,” he said.

Earlier this month Ryanair cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target to reduce losses and its exposure to costly unhedged fuel this winter.

The airline said it’s going to fly 214 million passengers instead of its earlier projection of 216 million passengers.

It warned that high oil prices could be a survival test for some less-hedged rivals.

According to Reuters Europe Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska, this is in part because it’s not worth it for them to fly as many planes, to have so much capacity on the market when jet fuel is so unstable and when the cost of flying is so expensive for them.

Some airlines are still very well protected, what they call hedged for future travel.

Ryanair itself is 80% hedged until March.

Currently, oil is hovering around $100 a barrel, and at that level when airlines are hedging its going to have a knock-on effect on prices.

Ryanair’s decision not to grow capacity for the winter means they’ve considered the current economic conditions and the fuel price.

There’s a lot less people travelling but Ryanair have the same size of fleet.

They’re recognising that it’s not economically viable to have the fleet at the full capacity when the fuel costs, their variable costs are as high as they are.

“I think there’s a very real risk that a weaker airline might go bust now, what we’re seeing right now is a prolonged fear over the cost of jet fuel and the supply of jet fuel, and given the war in Iran, it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon,” said Airlines Correspondent Joanna Puclinska.

“There are very real concerns over how much that jet fuel is going to cost their bottom line, and what we’re seeing is we’re entering the winter period for airlines, which is a substantially less profitable and less busy time,” she said.

Additional reporting by Reuters