The diplomatic and security arms of the state have been preparing for weeks, if not months, for the arrival of US President Donald Trump to counties Dublin and Clare later today.
But the problem when it comes to President Trump is that even the most meticulous of planning can sometimes come undone in a split second.
From a security perspective, the Dublin leg of what gardaí are calling one of the biggest security operations in the history of the state will be much easier to handle.
Mr Trump’s engagements in the capital are confined to the closed off space of the Phoenix Park.
In this way, his Dublin trip will resemble his second state visit to Britain last year – where he largely stayed within the confines of Windsor Castle and was shielded away from the tens of thousands of protesters in central London.
“I’m confident that thousands of people will be on the streets tomorrow to oppose the world’s biggest warmonger,” said People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy ahead of a planned demonstration in Dublin this afternoon.
However, those demonstrators may well be out of sight and out of mind for the US President.
Mr Trump’s trip to west Clare poses greater risks given the complexities in securing an open golf course surrounded by the sea.
While he visited Doonbeg as President in 2019, he did so without the spectators milling around or indeed before threats were made on his life.
Any security lapse – no matter how minor – would prove embarrassing for the Government at a time when Ireland’s ability to defend itself has been called into question during its hosting of the EU Presidency and as the Coalition gears up for a major gathering of EU Heads of State and Government in Dublin in November.
From a political perspective, the first moment of jeopardy comes when President Trump pays a “courtesy call” to Áras an Uachtaráin for what could be the biggest test of President Catherine Connolly’s term thus far.
President Connolly has been an arch critic of Mr Trump’s politics for several years and last year told the Dáil how she had “difficulty in even calling him ‘President Trump’”.
This trend has continued during her ascent to Head of State, noting during last year’s election campaign how “we have a President Trump who is acting like a bully”, and then using her first St Patrick’s Day message to criticise the Trump administration by noting how “the normalisation of war can never be accepted”.
Supporters of Mr Trump are keen to downplay the prospect of any friction between the pair.
“I’m sure they will get on fine. There is no shortage of people who can kiss and make up in politics and I think President Connolly and President Trump are quite capable of settling any differences,” said Greg Swenson of Republic Overseas UK.
These comments were echoed by Mr Trump’s son Eric who told RTÉ Drivetime’s programme yesterday how he has seen many examples of where “one day two people hate each other and the next day the two people are hugging and singing Kumbaya”.
Some of those who helped propel Ms Connolly to a 63% first preference share last October are somewhat managing the expectations of those who expect her to speak her mind to the US President, with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald noting how the pair’s meeting will be “short”.
“I have no doubt that she will discharge her duties admirably”, added the Sinn Féin leader who said she hoped Ms Connolly would raise the ongoing situation in Gaza with Mr Trump.
But how would Mr Trump respond should President Connolly freely let her views be known?
It was interesting to note her speech upon July’s visit of the Governor-General of Australia in which she spoke out against war and how powerful states were “ignoring the rulings of the International Court of Justice”.
After the Áras, Mr Trump heads to Farmleigh House for his third meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin in 18 months.
It is likely the Fianna Fáil leader will pivot to golf to break the ice, given he invited Mr Trump to the Irish Open while sitting in the Oval Office in March.
The fact that Shane Lowry is the clubhouse leader heading into the weekend, and Eric Trump has spoken favourably of Rory McIlroy in getting the tournament to Doonbeg will help elongate this part of what is expected to be a twenty-minute tete-a-tete.
Mr Martin is also expected to discuss Israeli settlements in the West Bank as well as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The pair are also expected to reflect on the 25th anniversary of the 11 September attacks and the ongoing economic links between Ireland and America.
Supporters of the Taoiseach said the pair have a “reasonable relationship” but note how Mr Martin was firmer in his interaction with Mr Trump during their last meeting in March.
Opposition parties will argue Mr Martin needs to be firmer again with the US President and not sit back and listen to all his utterances.
It is from here – the jeopardy of the trip from an Irish perspective rises higher again with Mr Trump and Mr Martin expected to hold a joint press event.
This is expected to be followed by a speech by Mr Trump at the US Ambassador’s residence in the Phoenix Park with several Government ministers planning to be in attendance.
However, some Government TDs are likely to decline their invites to Deerfield House, grumbling at the 6.15am call time for security vetting necessary to attend the event.
As is well known, having President Trump in front of a microphone is unpredictable at the best of times, not to mind twice in the space of an hour or so.
From there, it is on to Doonbeg where Mr Trump will be untethered from the Government and at home in his own hotel and golf club.
“It’s more vacation than diplomacy, he’s here on a golf outing”, said Mr Swenson.
It is understood that Mr Trump could traverse across his golf course both today and tomorrow while play will be stopped for 15 minutes today to facilitate his arrival.
Given his penchant for saying anything and answering any question fired at him from the fourth estate, it is impossible to predict how the Doonbeg leg of the trip will pass and what headaches it might cause for Irish officials.
The tournament is likely to climax with Mr Trump handing the trophy to the winner alongside the Taoiseach, Minister for Sport Patrick O’Donovan and Minister of State for Sport Charlie McConalogue.
The opposition are likely to pounce on this, but the Coalition will pivot to the economic benefits of a strong relationship with the US and the images Mr Trump’s presence in Doonbeg will generate across the Atlantic.
“Our economic partnership delivers for both countries. US firms present in Ireland have contributed to an economic ecosystem that has driven improvements in productivity and encouraged Irish companies to scale and grow in the US and internationally,” said Tánaiste Simon Harris ahead of greeting Mr Trump off the plane at Dublin Airport later this morning.
“President Trump’s visit this weekend will be an opportunity for the Irish Government to engage substantively on this partnership,” he added.
The Mayo footballers were among those present in Doonbeg yesterday.
This weekend may well feel like 75 years for those in Government as they try to emerge unscathed from President Trump’s golf outing.

