Ask those involved in the game where rugby is going and one theme dominates.
“I reckon we’ll see a faster, more attack-minded game by most teams,” says Sam Vesty, head coach of Northampton Saints.
“I think pace is now where the game is heading,” says Brett Igoe, former Leinster analyst. “Teams have to think how to beat the bullies.”
“The speed of the way they do things is very impressive and that’s the bit that we need to get after,” said Leo Cullen after Leinster’s Champions Cup final defeat to Bordeaux Bègles.
Heading into a World Cup year, rugby appears to be in a good place, aesthetically speaking. Scorelines are on the high side. Last year’s Six Nations saw a record number of tries scored (111). The sport cycles through periods of attack dominating defence and vice versa. Recent times have seen those willing to play with ambition suitably rewarded.
Ask around those working in the heart of the game, and they see little reason to suggest that this attack-filled cycle will end heading into next year’s World Cup.
Attack
Speed means more than just Louis Bielle-Biarrey running off into the distance (albeit there will still be plenty of that.) It’s the time it takes to get the ball from one player to another, the speed of the breakdown, split second decision-making.
There were many factors behind Bordeaux Bègles’ victory over Leinster last May. Speed was a vastly important one. As is the case with plenty of French clubs, the ball did not spend long on the ground. Bordeaux made 128 passes that day in Bilbao but only won 82 rucks.
For many teams, breakdowns have become something to avoid, a chance for the opposition to win the ball back or slow it down. Fewer rucks create a faster game and diminish the time any defensive system, let alone one based on line speed, has to set.
“You see the way Bordeaux play as well, it’s things done at speed,” said Cullen back in May. “That’s a mindset that we need to adopt in our league as well.”
Another way plenty of teams create speed is by attacking closer to the ruck. Avoid playing into the teeth of defences getting off the line. Instead flood numbers into phase after phase towards an isolated “pillar” defender next to the previous ruck.
Again, to use the European champions as an example, there were times in their Top 14 victory over Racing last weekend where there was no Bordeaux attacker standing outside the two 15-metre lines, such was the narrow focus.
“I’d say we might see teams looking to create overloads instead of overlaps,” says analyst Sam Larner. “The Saints [Northampton] do a good job of this by targeting the space outside of the ruck with three or four attackers trying to split apart two or three defenders.”
All of which can be different from the pod system more familiar to Irish rugby. Playmakers sitting “in the boot” behind forwards dotted in threes or twos across the pitch with one big man keeping his feet “white” on the touchline. Some think there will be a copycat culture given the success of Top 14 sides.
“I definitely feel like the English and Irish clubs are going to try to be a bit more French to a certain degree,” says one provincial coach. “They’ll still appreciate the structured side of the game, but I could see them trying to create more one-on-ones, beat people, keep the ball alive.
“When you’re playing against these bigger teams with those same shapes everyone runs, you can get in a bit of trouble in terms of getting caught, phase after phase after phase. It expends energy.”
Defence
If attacks play with more speed, more offloading and less time for defences to get set, there will surely be a reaction. Coaches on the defensive side of the ball will try to figure out a way to stem the tide.
What that looks like is difficult to predict. Either that or those who are charged with doing so are keeping their cards close to their chest. Still, there are theories doing the rounds. Intriguingly, one focuses on blitz defences, even if that system infamously did not work for Leinster against Bordeaux.
“You’ll see more teams bringing more line speed,” says the provincial coach. “It could be linked to transition, just trying to put pressure on. When the attack is moving to space, just get up there and get in their eyeline and spook them back on the inside.
“It’s the start of the change of cycle. We probably had a period where defence was based mostly on connection. Now it’s ‘look, we can’t be allowing teams to play their plays’.”
As Leo Cullen prepares for his final season in charge, why haven’t Leinster strengthened?
Writing earlier this season in The London Times, Charlie Morgan noted how jackal turnovers at the ruck are going down. The number of rucks it takes for defences to successfully win the ball back has gone from 27.9 in 2021 to 35.2 last season.
If it’s harder to stop the ball at the breakdown, then you need to do it in contact. Hence the need for line speed.
Diminishing turnovers is undoubtedly linked to “keep ball alive”, but refereeing also comes into it. One international coach says that referees have done a good job of “cleaning up the breakdown”.
Plenty bemoan officials “coaching” defensive sides when it comes to the ruck, warning them when they can see the temptation of infringing. Yet it remains true that if players are told to not go in for the ball and they follow that instruction, play does not slow down. If a penalty is awarded, it does.
Kicking & set-piece
Since World Rugby changed the refereeing of the kicking game, clamping down on escorts and creating a better contest for the ball, the sport has been dominated by transition attack. That trend won’t go anywhere, but multiple coaches suggest teams will work on how to better transition from attack to defence in order to deal with strong counterattacks.
Set-piece attack is also on the up. “Referees currently seem to be supporting the attack side which means it’s worth taking a few more risks earlier in phase count,” says Vesty. “So [we’ll see] a few more tries, more attacking lineouts and scrum attack and teams looking to run the ball back in the counter [attack].”
Lineouts promise to be a point of intrigue thanks to another World Rugby law tweak. Previously, lineouts were important for Irish teams as a source of possession for phase play. Now lineout mauls look to be the way to go.
Players are no longer allowed to hang out of the side of the maul provided they don’t change their bind. They must leave the maul once they are beyond the ball or look to be in a “pulling or dragging motion” (according to World Rugby).
“You will see more mauling and you’ll see a lot of variance around that,” says the provincial coach. “We might see more variance off attacking maul and mauling more all over the pitch, rather than just in the 22.”
If lineouts and mauls become more important, look to the set-piece for innovation. Better defensive jumpers, one-man lifts, new ways of pinching or keeping the ball. It’s all coming.
A team to watch in this area, if not all over the park? South Africa. The side that birthed the “bomb squad” at the 2019 World Cup and the 7-1 bench split in 2023 will surely find another way to surprise us in Australia next year.