London has fallen? The truth is revealed in major new study

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London has fallen? The truth is revealed in major new study‘Protecting a shared view of reality of London is crucial – we’re all entitled to our own opinions but not our own facts,’ says Professor Bobby Duffy

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Nicholas Cecil, Chief Reporter @nicholascecil|Madelaine Dowds2 minutes ago

London is far safer than it is widely perceived to be, according to an authoritative new report.

The research by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) debunked a series of damaging myths about the capital.

It shed light on the reality of living in the city after the series of attacks by Donald Trump on London and its Mayor Lord Sadiq Khan.

Donald Trump has an ongoing feud with London Mayor Lord Sadiq KhanAFP/Getty

However, it highlighted rises in some crimes such as shoplifting, theft from the person, as well as sexual offences and violence between 2019 and 2025.

Key findings in the 80-page report – entitled “London has fallen? Misperceptions of crime, race, religion and life in the UK capital – include:

* London has among the lowest violent crime rates of any region in England and Wales

* The public overestimate how likely Londoners are to become victims of crime

* TikTok users are more likely to overestimate crime levels, compared to people on other social media

* MIllions of people think the city’s Muslim population is double its true size

* A third of the public believes London has “no-go” areas where Sharia law dominates

Around 80,000 phones are thought to have been stolen in London in a single year, with many ending up being shipped overseasPA Media

Professor Bobby Duffy, director of KCL’s Policy Institute, said: “London has become a lightning rod in our national debate – deeply connected to arguments about crime, immigration and the direction of the country – with the sense that ‘London has fallen’ now a recurring theme in political, media and social media narratives.

“This study shows people don’t just have varying opinions about the capital; they’re working from different facts about it – with many being far too negative about the realities in London.”

The KCL academics commissioned two large scale polls of 2,164 and 3,969 adults in the UK, carried out by YouGov, for their Mistaken Britain research series.

Crime and safety

London was wrongly assumed to be the worst region in England and Wales for violent and sexual crime.

The polling found that 50% of the public think the capital had the highest rate of violent crime of any region in the year to September 2025, and 37% said the same for sexual offences.

However, Home Office statistics show London had the lowest rate of violent crime, at 26.7 violence against the person offences per 1,000 people, and the joint-lowest rate of sexual offences, at 3.1/1000 population.

Nearly two-thirds of adults believe total crime in London rose between 2019 and 2025 when it actually fell by 1.4%, the study added.

But Home Office data shows that overall crime, excluding fraud, was highest in the capital compared to other regions, at 103.9 offences per 1,000 people in the year to September 2025.

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Quality of life

London often tops or is among the highest ranked “best cities” in studies, the KCL research highlighted.

It stressed that despite coming first in the 2025 World’s Best Cities index, only 6% of adults guessed that it was first out of eight major cities tested.

One in six people put it last, with only New York faring worse, estimated by 20% of the public to be below it.

Air quality has improved in many parts of London due to the Ultra Low Emission ZonePA

Amid the controversy over Lord Khan’s Ulez ultra low emission zone, the study stated that nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in the capital nearly halved between 2016 and 2023.

But only a third of the public thought air quality had improved, with 55% saying it had stayed the same or got worse.

Population

One of the striking findings of the study is that the public estimate London’s Muslim population to be double its true size.

The average guess put it at 35% of the city compared to the reality of 15%, according to the 2021 Census.

A third of adults in Britain believe there are “no-go” areas in London where Sharia law dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter, according to the polling.

Public spending

Less than one in three people know that the capital is a net contributor to the Treasury, with the South East the only other region to pay more in than it receives.

The capital’s income tax bill alone has hit a record £80 billion a year.

Reform UK’s candidate for Mayor of London Laila Cunningham has campaigned strongly on crime levels in the capitalAFP/Getty

Political affiliations

The study found that Reform UK supporters were far more likely to overestimate the size of London’s Muslim, Black and Asian populations, with Green and Labour backers tending to believe the number of white British Londoners is higher than it actually is.

Reform voters were also more likely to think that crime is far higher than it is and to say that far more Londoners feel unsafe than really do.

Professor Duffy said: “Each of us tends to see the London that fits the story we already believe, reflecting both our own biases and the messages we’ll see from an increasingly fragmented and polarised media, social media and politics.

“Protecting a shared view of the reality of London is crucial to allow healthy debate about our capital – we’re all entitled to our own opinions on that, but not our own facts.”

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violence Sexual Offences Air quality Sharia King’s College London shoplifting