A row over unlawful donations to Reform UK is getting extraordinary cut-through with voters, and it’s former Conservatives, the very people Farage is best placed to win over, who are most sceptical, says Matthew Lesh
Reform’s jamboree in Birmingham last week had a weird feel. Thousands of party faithful trampled across the hundreds of square feet of turquoise carpet to enthusiastically cheer on their leader amid pyrotechnics and sound effects. The number of exhibitors, fringe events and corporate attendees had also increased markedly. It was starting to almost feel like a ‘major party’ conference. Yet despite attempts to put on a brave face, the entire affair was clearly overshadowed by new accusations of impropriety, the resignations of two key aides, and ongoing investigations.
It’s hard to avoid the conclusion, as this month’s City AM / Freshwater Strategy Poll demonstrates, that Reform has peaked. Their national vote share is now down to 25 per cent, five points lower than in February. Labour has taken a narrow lead, at 26 per cent, up nine points over the same period. Farage’s personal rating is at -24, down four points, the lowest since we began polling at the start of last year. Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch are both preferred as Prime Minister over Farage. Reform leads on just one of 15 issues (immigration, 38 per cent), while Labour leads on 13, including the cost of living, the top priority for voters.
The recent Channel 4 documentary, which used covertly filmed footage and contained allegations that the party was willing to accept unlawful donations, has had pretty extraordinary cut through. Seven in ten (70 per cent) voters say they were aware of the allegations, and a clear majority (62 per cent) say they point to a real problem with how the party is run. Almost half (49 per cent) believe that Reform has more of a problem with standards and money than other parties, compared to 41 per cent who say it is no worse. Overall, 41 per cent of all voters say the allegations make them less likely to consider voting Reform.
Reform has peaked
There are signs that the party is consolidating around a shrinking base, rather than growing its appeal. Among Reform’s own supporters, over two thirds (69 per cent) call the affair exaggerated and 81 per cent say the party is no worse than the rest. One-third (33 per cent) of Reform supporters say the allegations make them more likely to vote Reform. Notably, however, among the Conservatives’ 2024 voters, the key recruitment pool for Reform, 60 per cent see the allegations as a problem and 38 per cent say it would make them less likely to vote for the party. Many of the very people for whom Reform has the most potential appeal are precisely the ones being scared away.
Reform will continue to play a significant role for the foreseeable future. But it is difficult to see how the party, without a marked turnaround in fortunes, will be back in a position where it’s possible that they could form a majority government. Their vote peaked far too soon and is far from rusted on, driven largely by a rejection of the other parties rather than a love of Reform. They have struggled to grow an organisation rapidly, contributing to sloppy standards and to facing significantly more scrutiny.
The other key factor in Reform’s shrinking support is Labour’s change of leader. The ‘Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out’ slogan proved far too successful in the end. Burnham is markedly more popular than his predecessor, this month becoming the country’s most positively perceived major political figure (+17, up five points since August).
But this, too, could still shift. A majority of voters (57 per cent) have not yet reached a verdict on Burnham, with 33 per cent saying it is too early to say, plus 24 per cent neither good nor bad. Just one-in-four (24 per cent) voters say that Burnham is doing a good job and one in six (16 per cent) a bad job. Voters are also split on whether his government is a continuation of Starmer (44 per cent) or represents a genuine change (43 per cent).
This dynamic leaves Britain’s electoral politics wide open. Reform’s rise was never really a glowing endorsement, and Labour’s recovery is not yet one either. In recent years, voters have repeatedly withdrawn their support from one party without granting much enthusiasm to another. That is an opportunity for all of them, but a guarantee for none.
Matthew Lesh is a director at Freshwater Strategy